Chargers vs. Seahawks prediction favors Seattle to win in NFL Week 4 [2026]

Since our Chargers-Seahawks predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL matchup between the Chargers and Seahawks, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives the Seahawks a 74.4% chance of beating the Chargers in Week 4 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Seahawks winning 25-17.

Key factors favoring the Seahawks:

• Seattle Seahawks Team Rating
• Los Angeles Chargers QB Situation
• Seattle Seahawks Offense

According to our model, the Seahawks (-6.5) have a 56.4% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 42.5 points has a 52.0% chance of going over.

The main contributing factors to the over being more likely are:

• Seattle Seahawks Recent Performance
• Playing Conditions

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 4 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Chargers +6.5 (+113) / Seahawks -6.5 (-113)
• Moneyline: Chargers +295, Seahawks -300
• Total: Over/Under 42.5 (-106/+104)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Seahawks -6.5 @ 53¢ via Polymarket
• Moneyline: Chargers @ +295 via FanDuel
• Total: Over 42.5 @ 51¢ via Novig

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Seahawks -6.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Chargers vs. Seahawks TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Chargers vs. Seahawks?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for Week 4, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is most likely to score an anytime TD in Chargers vs. Seahawks.

Our projections give Smith-Njigba a 55.1% chance of getting in for six at Lumen Field, while the wide receiver is a 15.2% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Los Angeles Chargers

• Omarion Hampton (RB): 38.3% probability
• Ladd McConkey (WR): 25.4%
• Quentin Johnston (WR): 21.1%
• Oronde Gadsden (TE): 19.1%
• Keaton Mitchell (RB): 13.9%

Seattle Seahawks

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR): 55.1% prob.
• Emanuel Wilson (RB): 37.0%
• George Holani (RB): 29.9%
• AJ Barner (TE): 27.3%
• Rashid Shaheed (WR): 19.3%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Los Angeles Chargers

• Omarion Hampton (RB): 10.0% prob.
• Ladd McConkey (WR): 6.1%
• Quentin Johnston (WR): 4.9%
• Oronde Gadsden (TE): 4.4%
• Keaton Mitchell (RB): 3.1%

Seattle Seahawks

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR): 15.2% prob.
• Emanuel Wilson (RB): 8.8%
• George Holani (RB): 6.8%
• AJ Barner (TE): 6.1%
• Rashid Shaheed (WR): 4.1%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Chargers and Seahawks. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 4 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Chargers' Justin Herbert is projected for 205 passing yards, while the Seahawks' Sam Darnold is expected to throw for 236 yards.

Chargers rushing

• Omarion Hampton: 50 yds
• Justin Herbert: 24 yds
• Keaton Mitchell: 23 yds

Seahawks rushing

• Emanuel Wilson: 53 yds
• George Holani: 34 yds
• Sam Darnold: 9 yds

Chargers receiving

• Ladd McConkey: 52 yds
• Tre' Harris: 41 yds
• Quentin Johnston: 40 yds
• Oronde Gadsden: 30 yds
• Keaton Mitchell: 13 yds

Seahawks receiving

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 96 yds
• AJ Barner: 33 yds
• Rashid Shaheed: 30 yds
• Cooper Kupp: 30 yds
• Elijah Arroyo: 17 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 4 action between the Seahawks and Chargers at Lumen Field is scheduled to start at 4:25 PM ET.

• Who: Los Angeles Chargers vs. Seattle Seahawks
• Date: Sunday, October 4, 2026
• Time: 4:25 PM ET/1:25PM PT
• Venue: Lumen Field

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Conclusion

We predict the Seahawks, with a 74.4% win probability, will likely beat the Chargers in Week 4 of the NFL season.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.