NFL best bets today: Week 4 picks include Broncos vs. 49ers play [10/4/2026]

49ers -2.5 (-111)

• Edge: 6.5%
• Probability: 59.1%
• Matchup: Broncos vs. 49ers (4:25PM ET)

Our model has identified value on 49ers -2.5 at 53¢ odds. A 59.1% probability produces an edge of 6.5%, making this the strongest play for today's NFL slate.

Packers -2.5 (-122)

• Edge: 5.7%
• Probability: 60.6%
• Matchup: Packers vs. Buccaneers (1:00PM ET)

Packers -2.5 carries a 5.7% edge and a probability of 60.6% at 55¢ odds, according to our model.

49ers ML (-135)

• Edge: 5.4%
• Probability: 62.8%
• Matchup: Broncos vs. 49ers (4:25PM ET)

49ers ML at 57¢ odds shows a 5.4% edge, supported by a 62.8% probability in simulations.

Dolphins vs. Vikings over 38.5 points (+100)

• Edge: 4.8%
• Probability: 54.8%
• Matchup: Dolphins vs. Vikings (4:05PM ET)

A 4.8% edge and 54.8% probability make Dolphins vs. Vikings over 38.5 points a value play in the Dolphins vs. Vikings matchup, per our model.

Jets +3.5 (-104)

• Edge: 3.9%
• Probability: 54.9%
• Matchup: Jets vs. Bears (1:00PM ET)

Jets +3.5 at 51¢ presents a 3.9% edge, with simulations resulting in a probability of 54.9%.

Dolphins ML (+471)

• Edge: 3.8%
• Probability: 21.3%
• Matchup: Dolphins vs. Vikings (4:05PM ET)

Our model finds value on Dolphins to win at 18¢, supported by an edge of 3.8%.

Patriots vs. Bills Under 49.5 points (+108)

• Edge: 3.4%
• Probability: 51.5%
• Matchup: Patriots vs. Bills (1:00PM ET)

Our model has uncovered value on Patriots vs. Bills Under 49.5 points at 48¢. A 51.5% probability produces a 3.4% edge, making this a strong play for today's NFL action.

Cowboys +3.5 (-127)

• Edge: 3.4%
• Probability: 59.3%
• Matchup: Cowboys vs. Texans (1:00PM ET)

A 3.4% edge on a 59.3% probability makes Cowboys +3.5 at -127a solid value play in today's Cowboys vs. Texans matchup.

Packers ML (-156)

• Edge: 3.4%
• Probability: 64.3%
• Matchup: Packers vs. Buccaneers (1:00PM ET)

Our model projects value on Packers to win at 61¢. A 64.3% probability produces a 3.4% edge, making Packers the favorable ML play in today's matchup.

Chiefs vs. Raiders Over 48.5 points (+113)

• Edge: 3.1%
• Probability: 50%
• Matchup: Chiefs vs. Raiders (4:25PM ET)

Rounding out our top 10 bets, Chiefs vs. Raiders Over 48.5 points at 47¢ shows a 50% probability and a 3.1% edge.

NFL best bets summary: Sunday, 10/4/2026

As of 6:03AM ET, here are our top NFL bets by edge recommended by our model:

List of upcoming NFL games to bet on [10/4/2026]

• Colts vs. Commanders (9:30AM ET, Sunday)
• Cardinals vs. Giants (1:00PM ET, Sunday)
• Patriots vs. Bills (1:00PM ET, Sunday)
• Jets vs. Bears (1:00PM ET, Sunday)
• Cowboys vs. Texans (1:00PM ET, Sunday)
• Rams vs. Eagles (1:00PM ET, Sunday)
• Packers vs. Buccaneers (1:00PM ET, Sunday)
• Titans vs. Ravens (1:00PM ET, Sunday)
• Jaguars vs. Bengals (1:00PM ET, Sunday)
• Dolphins vs. Vikings (4:05PM ET, Sunday)
• Chiefs vs. Raiders (4:25PM ET, Sunday)
• Chargers vs. Seahawks (4:25PM ET, Sunday)
• Broncos vs. 49ers (4:25PM ET, Sunday)
• Lions vs. Panthers (8:20PM ET, Sunday)

Elevate Your Betting Game With Dimers Pro

Discover the difference our best bets make with Dimers Pro. Check out this explainer video to see how you can gain an edge.

NFL promo for Week 4

Make the most of our best bets today—including 49ers -2.5—with this Polymarket offer:

Conclusion

Our NFL best bets are locked and loaded for October 4, 2026, featuring plays such as 49ers -2.5 vs. Broncos and Packers -2.5. Powered by advanced simulations, these picks are here to boost your betting game.

Our predictions are grounded in current data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our Responsible Gambling hub.

All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publication.