NFL player props today: Week 4 best props include Emanuel Wilson [10/4/2026]

Emanuel Wilson under 1.5 receptions (-154)

• Edge: 23.5%
• Probability: 84.2%
• Projection: 0.7
• Game: Chargers vs. Seahawks (4:25PM ET)

Our model has found value on Seahawks' Emanuel Wilson under 1.5 receptions. A probability of 84.2% gives this play an edge of 23.5% at -154 odds.

Emanuel Wilson under 14.5 receiving yards (-251)

• Edge: 6.2%
• Probability: 77.7%
• Projection: 7.8
• Game: Chargers vs. Seahawks (4:25PM ET)

Emanuel Wilson’s receiving yards prop shows a 6.2% edge at -251 odds, according to our model, which projects him for 7.8 receiving yards on the under 14.5 line.

Tyler Allgeier over 9.5 rushing yards (-257)

• Edge: 5.2%
• Probability: 77.2%
• Projection: 23.9
• Game: Cardinals vs. Giants (1:00PM ET)

The data highlights value on Tyler Allgeier over 9.5 rushing yards, with simulations showing a 77.2% probability and a 5.2% edge at -257.

Jonnu Smith over 0.5 receptions (-212)

• Edge: 6.1%
• Probability: 74.0%
• Projection: 1.3
• Game: Packers vs. Buccaneers (1:00PM ET)

Our model projects Jonnu Smith to record 1.3 receptions today, creating an edge of 6.1% on the over 0.5 line at -212 odds.

Calvin Ridley over 0.5 receptions (-186)

• Edge: 7.4%
• Probability: 72.4%
• Projection: 1.3
• Game: Titans vs. Ravens (1:00PM ET)

Simulations indicate value on Calvin Ridley over 0.5 receptions for Titans, showing an edge of 7.4% at -186 odds.

Christian Watson under 5.5 receptions (-155)

• Edge: 11.4%
• Probability: 72.2%
• Projection: 4.4
• Game: Packers vs. Buccaneers (1:00PM ET)

Christian Watson’s receptions prop shows an edge of 11.4% at -155 odds, according to our model, which projects him for 4.4 today.

Kenny Gainwell under 2.5 receptions (-194)

• Edge: 5.1%
• Probability: 71.1%
• Projection: 1.9
• Game: Packers vs. Buccaneers (1:00PM ET)

Our model projects Kenny Gainwell for 1.9 receptions for Buccaneers, creating an edge of 5.1% on under 2.5 at -194 odds.

Emmett Johnson under 14.5 receiving yards (-208)

• Edge: 3.2%
• Probability: 70.7%
• Projection: 11.1
• Game: Chiefs vs. Raiders (4:25PM ET)

Our expert modelling projects Emmett Johnson for 11.1 receiving yards, creating value on the under 14.5 line at -208 odds and a 3.2% edge.

Jordan Love over 2.5 rushing yards (-122)

• Edge: 15.7%
• Probability: 70.6%
• Projection: 10.0
• Game: Packers vs. Buccaneers (1:00PM ET)

A 15.7% edge on the over 14.5 rushing yards line makes Jordan Love a value play in Packers vs. Buccaneers, with our model projecting him for 10.0 rushing yards at -122 odds.

Kyle Williams under 0.5 receptions (-178)

• Edge: 6.0%
• Probability: 70.0%
• Projection: 1.2
• Game: Patriots vs. Bills (1:00PM ET)

Simulations project Kyle Williams for 1.2 receptions here, creating a 6.0% edge on the under 0.5 line at -178 odds.

NFL player prop summary: Week 4, 2026

A quick summary of today’s top props by probability according to our model as of 6:21AM ET:

NFL promo for Week 4

Today's player props include Emanuel Wilson under 1.5 receptions. Make the most of them with this Polymarket offer:

Conclusion

For October 4, 2026, our NFL prop bets feature players such as Emanuel Wilson, Tyler Allgeier and Jonnu Smith. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.

Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers encourages responsible gambling.