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Read Article Jaguars vs. Broncos prediction favors Denver to win in NFL Week 2 [2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Editor
Dimers' simulation model projects a 55.8% win probability for the Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High.
The Denver Broncos will face the Jacksonville Jaguars in NFL Week 2 action at Empower Field at Mile High on Sunday, starting at 4:05 PM ET.
Dimers' advanced NFL model projects the Broncos as the most likely winner in this Jaguars vs. Broncos prediction.
This article offers an expanded analysis of this week's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Jaguars vs. Broncos prediction and odds
Since our Jaguars-Broncos predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL matchup between the Jaguars and Broncos, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.
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Our independent predictive model gives the Broncos a 55.8% chance of beating the Jaguars in Week 2 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Broncos winning 23-22.
Key factors favoring the Broncos:
- Denver Broncos Home Ground Advantage
- Denver Broncos Defensive Efficiency
- Denver Broncos Form
According to our model, the Jaguars (+2.5) have a 53.9% chance of covering the spread, while the 45.5-point over/under has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 2 straight up picks.
Latest betting odds
We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Spread: Jaguars +2.5 (+113) / Broncos -2.5 (-117)
- Moneyline: Jaguars +138, Broncos -144
- Total: Over/Under 45.5 (+102/-104)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Spread: Jaguars +2.5 @ 47¢ via Novig
- Moneyline: Jaguars @ 42¢ via Polymarket
- Total: Over 45.5 @ 50¢ via Novig
According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Jaguars +2.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Jaguars vs. Broncos TD scorers
Who will score a touchdown in Jaguars vs. Broncos?
According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for today, J.K. Dobbins is most likely to score an anytime TD in Jaguars vs. Broncos.
Our projections give Dobbins a 42.3% chance of scoring a TD at Empower Field at Mile High, while the running back is a 10.8% chance of registering the first touchdown the game.
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions
Jacksonville Jaguars
- Bhayshul Tuten (RB): 34.0% probability
- Parker Washington (WR): 31.2%
- Chris Rodriguez (RB): 25.7%
- Trevor Lawrence (QB): 22.9%
- Jakobi Meyers (WR): 19.6%
Denver Broncos
- J.K. Dobbins (RB): 42.3% prob.
- Jaylen Waddle (WR): 29.9%
- Courtland Sutton (WR): 27.4%
- Jonah Coleman (RB): 20.6%
- Bo Nix (QB): 19.1%
First touchdown scorer predictions
Jacksonville Jaguars
- Bhayshul Tuten (RB): 7.7% prob.
- Parker Washington (WR): 7.0%
- Chris Rodriguez (RB): 5.5%
- Trevor Lawrence (QB): 4.9%
- Jakobi Meyers (WR): 4.1%
Denver Broncos
- J.K. Dobbins (RB): 10.8% prob.
- Jaylen Waddle (WR): 7.0%
- Courtland Sutton (WR): 6.3%
- Jonah Coleman (RB): 4.6%
- Bo Nix (QB): 4.2%
Top player props
Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Jaguars and Broncos. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 2 games.
Quarterbacks
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Jaguars' Trevor Lawrence is projected for 233 passing yards, while the Broncos' Bo Nix is expected to throw for 226 yards.
Jaguars rushing
- Bhayshul Tuten: 50 yds
- Chris Rodriguez: 33 yds
- Trevor Lawrence: 21 yds
Broncos rushing
- J.K. Dobbins: 63 yds
- Jonah Coleman: 23 yds
- Bo Nix: 21 yds
Jaguars receiving
- Parker Washington: 64 yds
- Jakobi Meyers: 43 yds
- Brian Thomas: 40 yds
- Brenton Strange: 36 yds
- Bhayshul Tuten: 13 yds
Broncos receiving
- Jaylen Waddle: 58 yds
- Courtland Sutton: 45 yds
- Pat Bryant: 38 yds
- Evan Engram: 28 yds
- Jonah Coleman: 15 yds
Game info & kickoff details
The NFL Week 2 action between the Broncos and Jaguars at Empower Field at Mile High is scheduled to begin at 4:05 PM ET.
- Who: Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Denver Broncos
- Date: Sunday, September 20, 2026
- Time: 4:05 PM ET/1:05PM PT
- Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
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Conclusion
We predict the Broncos, with a 55.8% win probability, will likely beat the Jaguars in Week 2 of the NFL season.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.
Ryan Leaver specializes in sports betting analysis across the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. Drawing on advanced statistical models, simulations, and historical data, he produces game previews, betting picks, player prop analysis, and futures coverage to help bettors make more informed decisions.
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