Patriots vs. Seahawks prediction favors Seattle to win in NFL Week 1 [2026]

The Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots will meet in Week 1 of the NFL season at Lumen Field on Wednesday, starting at 8:20 PM ET.

Dimers' proven NFL model projects the Seahawks as the most likely winner in this Patriots vs. Seahawks prediction.

This article offers a closer look at this week's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks, backed by the same system that has dominated college football and NFL betting markets across multiple seasons.

Patriots vs. Seahawks prediction and odds

Since our Patriots-Seahawks predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the result of Wednesday's NFL matchup between the Patriots and Seahawks, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives the Seahawks a 60.5% chance of defeating the Patriots in Week 1 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Seahawks winning 23-21.

According to our model, the Patriots (+3.5) have a 54.7% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 44.5 points has a 51.1% chance of going over.

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 1 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Patriots +3.5 (-108) / Seahawks -3.5 (+113)
• Moneyline: Patriots +163, Seahawks -163
• Total: Over/Under 44.5 (+106/-108)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Patriots +3.5 @ 52¢ via Polymarket
• Moneyline: Patriots @ 38¢ via Polymarket
• Total: Over 44.5 @ 49¢ via Novig

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Patriots +3.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Patriots vs. Seahawks TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Patriots vs. Seahawks?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for today, Rhamondre Stevenson is most likely to score an anytime TD in Patriots vs. Seahawks.

Our projections give Stevenson a 46.2% chance of scoring a TD at Lumen Field, while the running back is a 10.7% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

New England Patriots

• Rhamondre Stevenson (RB): 46.2% probability
• A.J. Brown (WR): 37.5%
• Hunter Henry (TE): 24.4%
• Romeo Doubs (WR): 24.3%
• Drake Maye (QB): 17.8%

Seattle Seahawks

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR): 39.2% prob.
• Jadarian Price (RB): 36.5%
• George Holani (RB): 27.7%
• AJ Barner (TE): 25.2%
• Cooper Kupp (WR): 22.5%

First touchdown scorer predictions

New England Patriots

• Rhamondre Stevenson (RB): 10.7% prob.
• A.J. Brown (WR): 8.1%
• Hunter Henry (TE): 4.8%
• Romeo Doubs (WR): 4.8%
• Drake Maye (QB): 3.4%

Seattle Seahawks

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR): 10.1% prob.
• Jadarian Price (RB): 9.3%
• George Holani (RB): 6.6%
• AJ Barner (TE): 5.9%
• Cooper Kupp (WR): 5.2%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Patriots and Seahawks. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 1 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Patriots' Drake Maye is projected for 237 passing yards, while the Seahawks' Sam Darnold is expected to throw for 227 yards.

Patriots rushing

• Rhamondre Stevenson: 63 yds
• Drake Maye: 28 yds
• Corey Kiner: 11 yds

Seahawks rushing

• Jadarian Price: 55 yds
• George Holani: 20 yds
• Emanuel Wilson: 12 yds

Patriots receiving

• A.J. Brown: 70 yds
• Romeo Doubs: 42 yds
• Hunter Henry: 36 yds
• DeMario Douglas: 28 yds
• Rhamondre Stevenson: 27 yds

Seahawks receiving

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 85 yds
• Rashid Shaheed: 38 yds
• Cooper Kupp: 35 yds
• AJ Barner: 29 yds
• Elijah Arroyo: 15 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 1 game between the Seahawks and Patriots at Lumen Field is scheduled to begin at 8:20 PM ET.

• Who: New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks
• Date: Wednesday, September 9, 2026
• Time: 8:20 PM ET/5:20PM PT
• Venue: Lumen Field

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Conclusion

We predict the Seahawks, with a 60.5% win probability, will likely beat the Patriots in Week 1 of the NFL season.

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