Saints vs. Lions prediction favors Detroit to win in NFL Week 1 [2026]

Since our Saints-Lions predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the result of Sunday's NFL game between the Saints and Lions, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Lions a 72.9% chance of beating the Saints in Week 1 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Lions winning 28-21. According to our model, the Lions (-6.5) have a 53.2% chance of covering the spread, while the 49.5-point over/under has a 51.7% chance of going over.

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 1 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Saints +6.5 (+115) / Lions -6.5 (-117)
• Moneyline: Saints +285, Lions -292
• Total: Over/Under 49.5 (-106/+104)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Saints +6.5 @ 47¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Saints @ 26¢ via Novig
• Total: Over 49.5 @ 51¢ via Novig

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Saints to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Saints vs. Lions TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Saints vs. Lions?

According to our model, Jahmyr Gibbs is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Saints vs. Lions.

Our projections give Gibbs a 66.1% chance of scoring a TD at Ford Field, while the running back is a 17.5% chance of registering the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

New Orleans Saints

• Travis Etienne (RB): 41.6% probability
• Chris Olave (WR): 36.2%
• Juwan Johnson (TE): 25.4%
• Devaughn Vele (WR): 22.6%
• Tyler Shough (QB): 18.1%

Detroit Lions

• Jahmyr Gibbs (RB): 66.1% prob.
• Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR): 47.8%
• Jameson Williams (WR): 36.1%
• Sam LaPorta (TE): 35.2%
• Isaac TeSlaa (WR): 17.8%

First touchdown scorer predictions

New Orleans Saints

• Travis Etienne (RB): 9.9% prob.
• Chris Olave (WR): 8.3%
• Juwan Johnson (TE): 5.4%
• Devaughn Vele (WR): 4.7%
• Tyler Shough (QB): 3.7%

Detroit Lions

• Jahmyr Gibbs (RB): 17.5% prob.
• Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR): 10.5%
• Jameson Williams (WR): 7.2%
• Sam LaPorta (TE): 7.0%
• Isaac TeSlaa (WR): 3.2%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Saints and Lions. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 1 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Saints' Tyler Shough is projected for 247 passing yards. The Lions' Jared Goff is expected to throw for 260 yards.

Saints rushing

• Travis Etienne: 58 yds
• Tyler Shough: 20 yds
• Alvin Kamara: 17 yds

Lions rushing

• Jahmyr Gibbs: 86 yds
• Jacob Saylors: 20 yds
• Jared Goff: 3 yds

Saints receiving

• Chris Olave: 81 yds
• Devaughn Vele: 46 yds
• Juwan Johnson: 46 yds
• Travis Etienne: 20 yds
• Barion Brown: 16 yds

Lions receiving

• Amon-Ra St. Brown: 82 yds
• Jameson Williams: 61 yds
• Sam LaPorta: 47 yds
• Jahmyr Gibbs: 34 yds
• Isaac TeSlaa: 24 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 1 game between the Lions and Saints at Ford Field is scheduled to start at 1:00 PM ET.

• Who: New Orleans Saints vs. Detroit Lions
• Date: Sunday, September 13, 2026
• Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
• Venue: Ford Field

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Conclusion

We predict the Lions, with a 72.9% win probability, will likely beat the Saints in Week 1 of the NFL season.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.