NFL Trade Deadline Winners: Why these players who stayed put all get a boost

The NFL trade deadline passed Tuesday, and most of the attention went to the players who moved. But some of the biggest beneficiaries didn’t move at all. The deadline improved their situations around them, signaling an improved or even better second half of the season on the way.

Using the Dimers NFL Projections hub and our latest NFL futures predictions, here are three players who weren’t traded but have better outlooks heading into Week 10.

Justin Jefferson (Vikings)

The Vikings’ biggest deadline move was a reunion. Minnesota sent a 2027 third-round pick to Las Vegas for Kirk Cousins after Carson Wentz struggled in a 23-6 loss to Buffalo and the 6-0 Vikings suddenly found themselves one loss away from last place in the NFC North.

At a player level, no one benefits more than Jefferson heading into Packers vs. Vikings. He spent his first four seasons with Cousins and put up nearly 5,000 receiving yards and 30 touchdowns. His one season with Sam Darnold went well too, at 1,533 yards and 10 touchdowns, but since the start of last season, he has just over 1,400 yards and six total touchdowns across 24 games, catching passes from five different quarterbacks.

Cousins has already thrown for 2,340 yards and 20 touchdowns in nine starts with the Raiders this season, so he arrives in form, without concerns of being washed, and already knows his best receiver.

Our model saw the change right away:

Jefferson projected rec yards with Wentz: 61.2

Jefferson projected rec yards with Cousins: 81.9

That’s more than 20 extra projected yards from the quarterback change alone.

Cousins’ first start back comes at Lambeau Field against Green Bay, a place where, interestingly, Jefferson and Cousins never connected for a TD.

The Packers are 3.5-point favorites, and the Dimers model projects a 22-19 Green Bay win with a 60.8% win probability, but that's up to 39.8% for the Vikings from just 32.5% with Wentz, and 2 points shorter on the spread.

Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs)

Kansas City needed a receiver after Xavier Worthy hurt his hamstring late in the 35-12 win over the Jets, and frankly, even before that, as they have struggled to generate consistent production at the position. The Chiefs traded their 2027 fourth round and fifth round picks to Indianapolis for Josh Downs.

Downs gives Mahomes a proven slot option. Since 2023, he has 1,995 receiving yards from the slot, second only to Amon-Ra St. Brown over that span.

His first impact on the Chiefs' projections looks modest as he adjusts to the offense ahead of Chiefs vs. Falcons:

Josh Downs: 2.7 receptions, 32.0 receiving yards, 12.7% anytime TD probability

Patrick Mahomes: 21.5 completions, 239.4 passing yards

Even with the WR issues, Mahomes has cleared 239.4 passing yards in all but three games this season, and we'd expect both projections to rise as Downs settles in.

The upcoming schedule should help these two find a rhythm. Kansas City’s upcoming opponents include the Falcons, Cardinals, Bills, Patriots and Raiders, and all five currently rank in the bottom half of the league against the pass.

Atlanta’s pass defense also just got thinner. The Falcons just traded safety Jessie Bates III to Jacksonville at the deadline, right before hosting Kansas City. The Chiefs are 3.5-point road favorites, and the model gives them a 62.8% win probability and a projected 24-21 win.

They're also up to a top-five Super Bowl probability per the Dimers model at 7.8%, and are currently just 1.3% more likely to win the AFC than division rival Denver.

Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars)

Jacksonville was a preseason value play in our model, and are now the Dimers Super Bowl favorite after our Week 10 futures update, even ahead of the books' favorites (Bills, 49ers):

Jaguars: 9.4% (+750)

Bills: 7.5% (+600)

49ers: 4.7% (+600)

Most of the Jaguars’ deadline moves went to the defense:

Jordan Davis (DT), from the Eagles for a 2027 first-round pick and a 2029 second-round pick

Jessie Bates III (S), from the Falcons for a 2027 second-round pick and a 2028 fifth-round pick

Davon Godchaux (DT), from the Saints for a conditional sixth-round pick

But aside from now being the QB of our Super Bowl favorite, Lawrence is a winner because of what happened in Tennessee, where Jacksonville plays 2 of their next 3 games. The Titans traded star defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons to Chicago and sent safety Amani Hooker, who is tied for the league lead with five interceptions, to Buffalo.

Lawrence now avoids Simmons in two of his next three games, though he’ll see him again when the Jaguars face the Bears in Week 13, and he avoids Hooker entirely.

That lack of pressure and imposing coverage identifies value on Lawrence in both the passing and running game against the Titans on Sunday, with each of these bets below available in our NFL player props:

We reasonably expect a comfortable Jacksonville win: 82.4% win probability and a projected 29-18 final score against a 10-5-point spread

Another big winner in the immediate future is Jags WR Parker Washington.

In the midst of a career receiving season and already matching his career-high with 5 TDs, he’s projected for 67.6 receiving yards (14th among receivers this week) with a 41.4% chance to score (7th among receivers) against a Titans defense that already ranked 28th in the league vs. the pass.

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