Steelers vs. Patriots prediction favors New England to win in NFL Week 2 [2026]

Since our Steelers-Patriots predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL game between the Steelers and Patriots, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives the Patriots a 69.1% chance of beating the Steelers in Week 2 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Patriots winning 23-18.

Key factors favoring the Patriots:

• New England Patriots Power Rankings
• New England Patriots Offensive Efficiency
• Pittsburgh Steelers Offensive Efficiency

According to our model, the Patriots (-4.5) have a 52.7% chance of covering the spread, while the 41.5-point over/under has a 50.6% chance of going over.

The main contributing factors to the over being more likely are:

• Weather / Conditions
• Pittsburgh Steelers Pace

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 2 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Steelers +4.5 (+104) / Patriots -4.5 (-106)
• Moneyline: Steelers +213, Patriots -217
• Total: Over/Under 41.5 (-102/+100)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Patriots -4.5 @ 51¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Patriots @ 68¢ via Novig
• Total: Over 41.5 @ 50¢ via Novig

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Patriots -4.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Steelers vs. Patriots TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Steelers vs. Patriots?

According to our model, Rhamondre Stevenson is most likely to score an anytime TD in Steelers vs. Patriots.

Our projections give Stevenson a 41.4% chance of scoring a TD at Gillette Stadium, while the running back is a 10.7% chance of registering the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Pittsburgh Steelers

• DK Metcalf (WR): 33.8% probability
• Jaylen Warren (RB): 30.4%
• Rico Dowdle (RB): 29.6%
• Roman Wilson (WR): 22.2%
• Pat Freiermuth (TE): 21.7%

New England Patriots

• Rhamondre Stevenson (RB): 41.4% prob.
• TreVeyon Henderson (RB): 29.1%
• Hunter Henry (TE): 27.1%
• Mack Hollins (WR): 22.6%
• Romeo Doubs (WR): 22.6%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Pittsburgh Steelers

• DK Metcalf (WR): 7.8% prob.
• Jaylen Warren (RB): 6.9%
• Rico Dowdle (RB): 6.7%
• Roman Wilson (WR): 4.7%
• Pat Freiermuth (TE): 4.6%

New England Patriots

• Rhamondre Stevenson (RB): 10.7% prob.
• TreVeyon Henderson (RB): 6.9%
• Hunter Henry (TE): 6.3%
• Mack Hollins (WR): 5.1%
• Romeo Doubs (WR): 5.1%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Steelers and Patriots. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 2 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Steelers' Aaron Rodgers is projected for 215 passing yards, while the Patriots' Drake Maye is expected to throw for 234 yards.

Steelers rushing

• Jaylen Warren: 47 yds
• Rico Dowdle: 37 yds
• Aaron Rodgers: 4 yds

Patriots rushing

• Rhamondre Stevenson: 52 yds
• TreVeyon Henderson: 36 yds
• Drake Maye: 27 yds

Steelers receiving

• DK Metcalf: 62 yds
• Roman Wilson: 39 yds
• Pat Freiermuth: 34 yds
• Germie Bernard: 21 yds
• Jaylen Warren: 20 yds

Patriots receiving

• Romeo Doubs: 46 yds
• Mack Hollins: 43 yds
• DeMario Douglas: 41 yds
• Hunter Henry: 40 yds
• Rhamondre Stevenson: 23 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 2 game between the Patriots and Steelers at Gillette Stadium is scheduled to begin at 1:00 PM ET.

• Who: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New England Patriots
• Date: Sunday, September 20, 2026
• Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
• Venue: Gillette Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Patriots, with a 69.1% win probability, will likely beat the Steelers in Week 2 of the NFL season.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.