Nov 6, 2026
How to bet on the teams starting backup QBs in NFL Week 9
Read Article 49ers vs. Rams prediction favors Rams to win ‘TNF’ Week 1 [2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Dimers' simulation model projects a 62.9% win probability for the Rams at Melbourne Cricket Ground.
The Los Angeles Rams will take on the San Francisco 49ers in NFL Week 1 action at Melbourne Cricket Ground on Thursday, commencing at 8:35 PM ET.
Dimers' proven NFL model projects the Rams as the most likely winner in this 49ers vs. Rams prediction.
This article offers a closer look at Thursday's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks, backed by the same system that has dominated college football and NFL betting markets across multiple seasons.
Niners vs. Rams prediction and odds
Since our 49ers-Rams predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the result of Thursday's NFL game between the 49ers and Rams, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Rams a 62.9% chance of beating the 49ers in Week 1 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Rams winning 25-21. According to our model, the bookmakers have got it right, and the 49ers and Rams each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 47.5 points has a 52.7% chance of staying under.
To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 1 straight up picks.
Latest betting odds
We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Spread: 49ers +3.5 (+104) / Rams -3.5 (+104)
- Moneyline: 49ers +186, Rams -186
- Total: Over/Under 47.5 (-102/+100)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Spread: 49ers +3.5 @ 49¢ via Novig
- Moneyline: 49ers @ 35¢ via Novig
- Total: Under 47.5 @ 50¢ via Novig
According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 47.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
49ers vs. Rams TD scorers
Who will score a touchdown in 49ers vs. Rams?
According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for TNF, Christian McCaffrey is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in 49ers vs. Rams.
Our projections give McCaffrey a 52.7% chance of scoring a TD at Melbourne Cricket Ground, while the running back is a 12.2% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions
San Francisco 49ers
- Christian McCaffrey (RB): 52.7% probability
- Mike Evans (WR): 33.8%
- George Kittle (TE): 26.1%
- Deebo Samuel (WR): 22.5%
- De'Zhaun Stribling (WR): 21.6%
Los Angeles Rams
- Kyren Williams (RB): 50.7% prob.
- Davante Adams (WR): 41.5%
- Puka Nacua (WR): 41.4%
- Blake Corum (RB): 32.9%
- Colby Parkinson (TE): 18.7%
First touchdown scorer predictions
San Francisco 49ers
- Christian McCaffrey (RB): 12.2% prob.
- Mike Evans (WR): 6.7%
- George Kittle (TE): 4.9%
- Deebo Samuel (WR): 4.1%
- De'Zhaun Stribling (WR): 4.0%
Los Angeles Rams
- Kyren Williams (RB): 11.5% prob.
- Davante Adams (WR): 8.7%
- Puka Nacua (WR): 8.7%
- Blake Corum (RB): 6.5%
- Colby Parkinson (TE): 3.4%
Top player props
Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the 49ers and Rams. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 1 games.
Quarterbacks
Of the starting quarterbacks, the 49ers' Brock Purdy is projected for 242 passing yards, while the Rams' Matthew Stafford is expected to throw for a whopping 271 yards.
49ers rushing
- Christian McCaffrey: 63 yds
- Brock Purdy: 20 yds
- Kaelon Black: 9 yds
Rams rushing
- Kyren Williams: 64 yds
- Blake Corum: 49 yds
- Puka Nacua: 3 yds
49ers receiving
- Mike Evans: 54 yds
- Christian McCaffrey: 41 yds
- George Kittle: 37 yds
- Deebo Samuel: 34 yds
- De'Zhaun Stribling: 30 yds
Rams receiving
- Puka Nacua: 93 yds
- Davante Adams: 58 yds
- Terrance Ferguson: 28 yds
- Colby Parkinson: 24 yds
- Tyler Higbee: 20 yds
Game info & kickoff details
The NFL Week 1 game between the Rams and 49ers at Melbourne Cricket Ground is scheduled to begin at 8:35 PM ET.
- Who: San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams
- Date: Thursday, September 10, 2026
- Time: 8:35 PM ET/5:35PM PT
- Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground
NFL Week 1 promo
Using our full NFL Week 1 promo code guide, you can make the most of Dimers' 49ers vs. Rams predictions with the offer below — Polymarket code "DIMERS" securing a $50 bonus on a $10 first deposit:
Conclusion
We predict the Rams, with a 62.9% win probability, will likely beat the 49ers in Week 1 of the NFL season.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
Advertiser disclosure
