49ers vs. Rams prediction favors Rams to win ‘TNF’ Week 1 [2026]

Since our 49ers-Rams predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the outcome of Thursday's NFL game between the 49ers and Rams, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives the Rams a 63.7% chance of defeating the 49ers in Week 1 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Rams winning 25-21. According to our model, the bookmakers have got it right, and the 49ers and Rams each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the 48.5-point over/under has a 51.3% chance of staying under.

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 1 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: 49ers +3.5 (+106) / Rams -3.5 (+104)
• Moneyline: 49ers +190, Rams -186
• Total: Over/Under 48.5 (+106/-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: 49ers +3.5 @ 49¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: 49ers @ 34¢ via Novig
• Total: Over 48.5 @ 49¢ via Novig

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is 49ers to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

49ers vs. Rams TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in 49ers vs. Rams?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for TNF, Christian McCaffrey is most likely to score an anytime TD in 49ers vs. Rams.

Our projections give McCaffrey a 52.6% chance of scoring a TD at Melbourne Cricket Ground, while the running back is a 12.0% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

San Francisco 49ers

• Christian McCaffrey (RB): 52.6% probability
• Mike Evans (WR): 34.4%
• George Kittle (TE): 26.5%
• Deebo Samuel (WR): 22.7%
• De'Zhaun Stribling (WR): 21.6%

Los Angeles Rams

• Kyren Williams (RB): 52.0% prob.
• Puka Nacua (WR): 41.7%
• Davante Adams (WR): 41.0%
• Blake Corum (RB): 34.7%
• Colby Parkinson (TE): 18.5%

First touchdown scorer predictions

San Francisco 49ers

• Christian McCaffrey (RB): 12.0% prob.
• Mike Evans (WR): 6.8%
• George Kittle (TE): 4.9%
• Deebo Samuel (WR): 4.1%
• De'Zhaun Stribling (WR): 3.9%

Los Angeles Rams

• Kyren Williams (RB): 11.8% prob.
• Puka Nacua (WR): 8.7%
• Davante Adams (WR): 8.5%
• Blake Corum (RB): 6.8%
• Colby Parkinson (TE): 3.3%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the 49ers and Rams. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 1 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the 49ers' Brock Purdy is projected for 244 passing yards. The Rams' Matthew Stafford is expected to throw for a whopping 275 yards.

49ers rushing

• Christian McCaffrey: 63 yds
• Brock Purdy: 20 yds
• Kaelon Black: 9 yds

Rams rushing

• Kyren Williams: 64 yds
• Blake Corum: 51 yds
• Puka Nacua: 4 yds

49ers receiving

• Mike Evans: 55 yds
• Christian McCaffrey: 40 yds
• George Kittle: 38 yds
• Deebo Samuel: 35 yds
• De'Zhaun Stribling: 30 yds

Rams receiving

• Puka Nacua: 94 yds
• Davante Adams: 57 yds
• Terrance Ferguson: 28 yds
• Colby Parkinson: 24 yds
• Tyler Higbee: 19 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 1 action between the Rams and 49ers at Melbourne Cricket Ground is scheduled to start at 8:35 PM ET.

• Who: San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams
• Date: Thursday, September 10, 2026
• Time: 8:35 PM ET/5:35PM PT
• Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground

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Conclusion

We predict the Rams, with a 63.7% win probability, will likely beat the 49ers in Week 1 of the NFL season.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.