Buccaneers vs. Bengals prediction: Why Cincinnati is favored to win in NFL Week 1 [2026]

Since our Buccaneers-Bengals predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the result of Sunday's NFL game between the Buccaneers and Bengals, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Bengals a 65.8% chance of beating the Buccaneers in Week 1 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Bengals winning 27-23. According to our model, the Bengals (-3.5) have a 52.6% chance of covering the spread, while the 50.5-point over/under has a 50.0% chance of going over.

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 1 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Buccaneers +3.5 (+100) / Bengals -3.5 (-102)
• Moneyline: Buccaneers +182, Bengals -186
• Total: Over/Under 50.5 (+106/-108)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Bengals -3.5 @ 50¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Bengals @ 65¢ via Novig
• Total: Over 50.5 @ 49¢ via Novig

According to our best NFL bets, the top play to make on this game is Bengals -3.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Buccaneers vs. Bengals TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Buccaneers vs. Bengals?

According to our model, Chase Brown is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Buccaneers vs. Bengals.

Our projections give Brown a 51.6% chance of scoring a TD at Paycor Stadium, while the running back is an 11.4% chance of registering the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Bucky Irving (RB): 42.3% probability
• Emeka Egbuka (WR): 35.6%
• Kenny Gainwell (RB): 34.6%
• Chris Godwin (WR): 29.1%
• Cade Otton (TE): 23.0%

Cincinnati Bengals

• Chase Brown (RB): 51.6% prob.
• Ja'Marr Chase (WR): 51.4%
• Tee Higgins (WR): 44.8%
• Samaje Perine (RB): 21.3%
• Mike Gesicki (TE): 19.4%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Bucky Irving (RB): 8.6% prob.
• Emeka Egbuka (WR): 6.9%
• Kenny Gainwell (RB): 6.7%
• Chris Godwin (WR): 5.4%
• Cade Otton (TE): 4.1%

Cincinnati Bengals

• Chase Brown (RB): 11.4% prob.
• Ja'Marr Chase (WR): 11.4%
• Tee Higgins (WR): 9.4%
• Samaje Perine (RB): 3.8%
• Mike Gesicki (TE): 3.4%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Buccaneers and Bengals. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 1 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Buccaneers' Baker Mayfield is projected for 236 passing yards. The Bengals' Joe Burrow is expected to throw for a whopping 277 yards.

Buccaneers rushing

• Bucky Irving: 59 yds
• Kenny Gainwell: 32 yds
• Baker Mayfield: 21 yds

Bengals rushing

• Chase Brown: 63 yds
• Samaje Perine: 20 yds
• Joe Burrow: 11 yds

Buccaneers receiving

• Emeka Egbuka: 62 yds
• Chris Godwin: 53 yds
• Cade Otton: 35 yds
• Kenny Gainwell: 25 yds
• Ted Hurst: 23 yds

Bengals receiving

• Ja'Marr Chase: 89 yds
• Tee Higgins: 68 yds
• Chase Brown: 27 yds
• Mike Gesicki: 27 yds
• Andrei Iosivas: 21 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 1 matchup between the Bengals and Buccaneers at Paycor Stadium is scheduled to begin at 1:00 PM ET.

• Who: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Cincinnati Bengals
• Date: Sunday, September 13, 2026
• Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
• Venue: Paycor Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Bengals, with a 65.8% win probability, will likely beat the Buccaneers in Week 1 of the NFL season.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.