Commanders vs. Eagles prediction: Why Philadelphia is favored to win in NFL Week 1 [2026]

Since our Commanders-Eagles predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the result of Sunday's NFL game between the Commanders and Eagles, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Eagles a 67.4% chance of beating the Commanders in Week 1 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Eagles winning 24-19. According to our model, the Commanders (+5.5) have a 51.4% chance of covering the spread, while the 43.5-point over/under has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 1 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Commanders +5.5 (+106) / Eagles -5.5 (-108)
• Moneyline: Commanders +217, Eagles -223
• Total: Over/Under 43.5 (-106/+104)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Commanders +5.5 @ 49¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Commanders @ 32¢ via Novig
• Total: Under 43.5 @ 49¢ via Novig

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Commanders +5.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Commanders vs. Eagles TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Commanders vs. Eagles?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for Week 1, Saquon Barkley is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Commanders vs. Eagles.

Our projections give Barkley a 47.5% chance of scoring a TD at Lincoln Financial Field, while the running back is an 11.1% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Washington Commanders

• Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB): 35.6% probability
• Terry McLaurin (WR): 25.5%
• Rachaad White (RB): 25.1%
• Jayden Daniels (QB): 23.5%
• Stefon Diggs (WR): 19.9%

Philadelphia Eagles

• Saquon Barkley (RB): 47.5% prob.
• Jalen Hurts (QB): 40.0%
• DeVonta Smith (WR): 34.0%
• Dallas Goedert (TE): 29.8%
• Dontayvion Wicks (WR): 22.9%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Washington Commanders

• Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB): 8.9% prob.
• Terry McLaurin (WR): 6.0%
• Rachaad White (RB): 5.9%
• Jayden Daniels (QB): 5.4%
• Stefon Diggs (WR): 4.5%

Philadelphia Eagles

• Saquon Barkley (RB): 11.1% prob.
• Jalen Hurts (QB): 8.8%
• DeVonta Smith (WR): 7.2%
• Dallas Goedert (TE): 6.1%
• Dontayvion Wicks (WR): 4.5%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Commanders and Eagles. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 1 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Commanders' Jayden Daniels is projected for 208 passing yards. The Eagles' Jalen Hurts is expected to throw for 218 yards.

Commanders rushing

• Jacory Croskey-Merritt: 43 yds
• Jayden Daniels: 42 yds
• Rachaad White: 28 yds

Eagles rushing

• Saquon Barkley: 76 yds
• Jalen Hurts: 32 yds
• Tank Bigsby: 22 yds

Commanders receiving

• Terry McLaurin: 55 yds
• Stefon Diggs: 47 yds
• Chig Okonkwo: 30 yds
• Rachaad White: 17 yds
• Antonio Williams: 14 yds

Eagles receiving

• DeVonta Smith: 70 yds
• Dallas Goedert: 40 yds
• Dontayvion Wicks: 35 yds
• Makai Lemon: 30 yds
• Saquon Barkley: 19 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 1 action between the Eagles and Commanders at Lincoln Financial Field is scheduled to start at 4:25 PM ET.

• Who: Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles
• Date: Sunday, September 13, 2026
• Time: 4:25 PM ET/1:25PM PT
• Venue: Lincoln Financial Field

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Conclusion

We predict the Eagles, with a 67.4% win probability, will likely beat the Commanders in Week 1 of the NFL season.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.