Penguins vs. Golden Knights prediction favors Vegas to win Saturday's NHL matchup [10/17/2026]

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the outcome of Saturday's NHL matchup between the Penguins and Golden Knights, forming part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Golden Knights a 62.3% chance of beating the Penguins. According to our model, the Penguins (+1.5) have a 58.8% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6.5-goal over/under has a 50.9% chance of staying under.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Puck Line: Penguins +1.5 (-125) / Golden Knights -1.5 (+122)
• Moneyline: Penguins +186, Golden Knights -190
• Total: Over/Under 6.5 (-117/+115)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Puck line: Penguins +1.5 @ 56¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Penguins @ 35¢ via Novig
• Total: Under 6.5 @ 46¢ via Novig

According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 6.5 total goals.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Penguins vs. Golden Knights player props

Who will score a goal in Penguins vs. Golden Knights?

According to our model, Mark Stone is most likely to score an anytime goal in Penguins vs. Golden Knights.

Our projections give Stone a 38.5% chance of scoring a goal at T-Mobile Arena, while the star is a 6.7% chance of netting the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Pittsburgh Penguins

• Sidney Crosby: 31.4% probability
• Bryan Rust: 30.3% probability
• Rickard Rakell: 27.5% probability
• Evgeni Malkin: 26.3% probability
• Ben Kindel: 20.3% probability

Vegas Golden Knights

• Mark Stone: 38.5% probability
• Jack Eichel: 34.2% probability
• Trevor Connelly: 33.8% probability
• Mitch Marner: 27.5% probability
• Tomas Hertl: 27.3% probability

First goal scorer predictions

Pittsburgh Penguins

• Sidney Crosby: 6.1% probability
• Bryan Rust: 6.0% probability
• Rickard Rakell: 5.3% probability
• Evgeni Malkin: 4.1% probability
• Thomas Novak: 3.5% probability

Vegas Golden Knights

• Trevor Connelly: 7.1% probability
• Mark Stone: 6.7% probability
• Jack Eichel: 6.6% probability
• Mitch Marner: 5.2% probability
• Tomas Hertl: 5.0% probability

Game info & puck drop details

Saturday's action between the Golden Knights and Penguins at T-Mobile Arena is scheduled to begin at 10:00 PM ET.

• Who: Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Vegas Golden Knights
• Date: Saturday, October 17, 2026
• Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
• Venue: T-Mobile Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Golden Knights, with a 62.3% win probability, will likely beat the Penguins in Saturday's NHL matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NHL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.