Rangers vs. Maple Leafs Prediction, Picks & Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for Rangers vs. Maple Leafs in the NHL on Thursday, October 22, 2026 including our projected final score and probabilities for the moneyline, puck line, game total, and player props.
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LIVE
1st 00:00
NHL
Updating LIVE
LIVE
1st 00:00
Updating LIVE
NHL sport icon
NHL
Rangers
1
:
2
Scotiabank Arena
Maple Leafs
Scotiabank Arena
TEAM123T
Rangers
1 1
Maple Leafs
2 2
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Rangers
    33%
  • Maple Leafs
    67%
Win Probability
TEAM123T
Rangers
1 1
Maple Leafs
2 2
P1 18:19 Shot on goal by Jack Roslovic saved by Dylan Garand
P1 15:39 Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Dylan Garand
P1 14:10 Shot missed by Tye Kartye
P1 13:59 Shot on goal by Pavel Dorofeyev saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
P1 12:38 Shot on goal by Zack MacEwen saved by Dylan Garand
P1 12:06 Shot missed by Sean Durzi
P1 09:13 Shot on goal by Vladislav Gavrikov saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
P1 08:50 Shot on goal by Kirill Marchenko saved by Dylan Garand
P1 07:44 Shot on goal by Taylor Raddysh saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
P1 06:54 Shot missed by Nick Paul
P1 03:32 Shot on goal by Sean Durzi saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
P1 01:36 Goal scored by Easton Cowan assisted by Jake McCabe and Jack Roslovic
Play by Play
  1. P1 20:00
    End of 1st Period.
  2. P1 19:24
    J.T. Miller won faceoff against Auston Matthews in defensive zone
  3. P1 19:24
    Stoppage - Icing
  4. P1 18:31
    J.T. Miller won faceoff against Teddy Blueger in offensive zone
  5. P1 18:31
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  6. P1 18:19
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jack Roslovic saved by Dylan Garand
  7. P1 15:41
    Noah Laba won faceoff against Colton Sissons in defensive zone
  8. P1 15:39
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Dylan Garand
  9. P1 14:10
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Tye Kartye
  10. P1 14:02
    Colton Sissons won faceoff against Tye Kartye in defensive zone
  11. P1 14:02
    Stoppage - TV timeout
  12. P1 14:02
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  13. P1 13:59
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Pavel Dorofeyev saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
  14. P1 13:52
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  15. P1 12:38
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Zack MacEwen saved by Dylan Garand
  16. P1 12:06
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Sean Durzi
  17. P1 10:40
    J.T. Miller won faceoff against Nick Paul in neutral zone
  18. P1 10:40
    Stoppage - TV timeout
  19. P1 10:01
    Justin Dowling won faceoff against Colton Sissons in neutral zone
  20. P1 09:13
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Vladislav Gavrikov saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
  21. P1 08:52
    William Nylander won faceoff against Mika Zibanejad in offensive zone
  22. P1 08:50
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Kirill Marchenko saved by Dylan Garand
  23. P1 08:05
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Will Cuylle in offensive zone
  24. P1 07:56
    Alberts Smits credited with hit on Vinni Lettieri in neutral zone
  25. P1 07:44
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Taylor Raddysh saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
  26. P1 07:24
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  27. P1 06:54
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Nick Paul
  28. P1 06:53
    J.T. Miller won faceoff against William Nylander in defensive zone
  29. P1 06:53
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  30. P1 05:39
    Noah Laba won faceoff against Teddy Blueger in neutral zone
  31. P1 05:22
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Mika Zibanejad in offensive zone
  32. P1 05:22
    Stoppage - Icing
  33. P1 05:15
    Stoppage - Icing
  34. P1 05:05
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  35. P1 04:56
    Mika Zibanejad won faceoff against Auston Matthews in offensive zone
  36. P1 04:41
    Colton Sissons won faceoff against Noah Laba in neutral zone
  37. P1 04:41
    Stoppage - Offside
  38. P1 03:32
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Sean Durzi saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
  39. P1 02:58
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against J.T. Miller in defensive zone
  40. P1 02:30
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Alexis Lafreniere in defensive zone
  41. P1 02:30
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  42. P1 01:57
    Zack MacEwen credited with hit on Braden Schneider in offensive zone
  43. P1 01:36
    Noah Laba won faceoff against Teddy Blueger in neutral zone
  44. P1 01:36
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Easton Cowan assisted by Jake McCabe and Jack Roslovic
    0-1
  45. P1 00:23
    Nick Paul won faceoff against J.T. Miller in neutral zone
  46. P1 00:23
    Stoppage - Offside
  47. P1 00:16
    Stoppage - Puck in Benches
  48. P1 00:00
    Game Setup.
Stats
Rangers
STATS
Maple Leafs
7Shots on Goal8
39% Faceoff Win % 61%
0/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 0/0
0Penalty Infraction Mins0
18Hits7
2 Shots Blocked 4
4Giveaways8
RangersNYR
Maple LeafsTOR
7Shots on Goal8
39% Faceoff Win % 61%
0/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 0/0
0Penalty Infraction Mins0
18Hits7
2 Shots Blocked 4
4Giveaways8

Rangers vs. Maple Leafs prediction & analysis

Game overview: NHL Thursday

  • Teams: NY Rangers Rangers vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
  • Date: Thursday, October 22, 2026
  • Puck drop: 7:00PM ET
  • Venue: Scotiabank Arena

Current betting odds

  • Puck line: Rangers (-1.5, +220), Maple Leafs (+1.5, -260)
  • Moneyline: Rangers -108, Maple Leafs +104
  • Total (Over/Under): 6.5 goals (+104/-106)

Dimers’ win probabilities

  • Rangers: 50.8%
  • Maple Leafs: 49.2%

Our NHL win probabilities come from a machine learning model that assesses each team’s offensive and defensive performance, calculating multiple factors and accounting for OT and shootout chances.

It draws from these projections to forecast probabilities for the moneyline, puck line, and total goals.

Rangers vs. Maple Leafs player props & projections

Our highest anytime goalscorer probabilities for this game are:

  • Pavel Dorofeyev, Rangers: 35.8%
  • Mika Zibanejad, Rangers: 33.4%
  • William Nylander, Maple Leafs: 40.1%
  • Auston Matthews, Maple Leafs: 40.0%

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Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Rangers a win probability of 50.8%, while the Maple Leafs have a win probability of 49.2%.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Rangers are more likely to beat the Maple Leafs in the NHL game at Scotiabank Arena on Thursday.

That is the straight-up read. Whether either side is worth backing depends on the price, which is what our betting model rates.

Responsible gambling

Dimers’ predictions and betting insights are here to inform your decisions, not to make them for you. If you are betting on Rangers vs. Maple Leafs, set your limits in advance and stay within them. For support, visit our responsible gambling resources.

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