Carlos Alcaraz vs. Matteo Arnaldi prediction, odds, picks for ATP Japan Open 2026

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Friday's Alcaraz-Arnaldi men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives Alcaraz a 92% chance of defeating Arnaldi at the ATP Japan Open tournament. Additionally, Alcaraz has an 87% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Arnaldi (+6.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the over 18.5 games has a 58% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Matteo Arnaldi +1580, Carlos Alcaraz -2000
• First Set: Alcaraz -833, Arnaldi +500

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Arnaldi @ +1580 via DraftKings
• First Set: Arnaldi @ -110 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Matteo Arnaldi to win the first set.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The ATP Japan Open match between Carlos Alcaraz and Matteo Arnaldi is scheduled to start on Friday at 10:00 PM ET.

• Who: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Matteo Arnaldi
• Date: Friday, October 2, 2026
• Approx. Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
• Tournament: ATP Tokyo, Japan Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Round of 16

All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

Conclusion

We predict Carlos Alcaraz, with a 92% win probability, will likely beat Matteo Arnaldi at the ATP Japan Open tournament.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.