Jelena Ostapenko vs. Paula Badosa prediction, odds, picks for WTA China Open 2026

Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Friday's Ostapenko-Badosa women's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives Badosa a 58% chance of winning against Ostapenko at the WTA China Open tournament. Additionally, Badosa has a 57% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Ostapenko (+2.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the over 21.5 games has a 51% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Paula Badosa -166, Jelena Ostapenko +147
• First Set: Ostapenko +130, Badosa -164

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Ostapenko @ +147 via DraftKings
• First Set: Badosa @ -125 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Jelena Ostapenko to win.

Although Ostapenko is less than likely to win, she provides the best value at the current available odds.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The WTA China Open match between Jelena Ostapenko and Paula Badosa is scheduled to start on Friday at 11:00 PM ET.

• Who: Jelena Ostapenko vs. Paula Badosa
• Date: Friday, October 2, 2026
• Approx. Time: 11:00 PM ET/8:00PM PT
• Tournament: WTA Beijing, China Women's Singles 2026
• Round: Round of 64

All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

Conclusion

We predict Paula Badosa, with a 58% win probability, will likely beat Jelena Ostapenko at the WTA China Open tournament.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.