Matteo Berrettini vs. Adolfo Daniel Vallejo prediction, odds, picks for ATP Japan Open 2026

Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Saturday's Berrettini-Vallejo men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives Berrettini a 60% chance of defeating Vallejo at the ATP Japan Open tournament. Additionally, Berrettini has a 59% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Berrettini (-1.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 23.5 games has a 56% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Adolfo Vallejo +140, Matteo Berrettini -160
• First Set: Berrettini -164, Vallejo +130

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Vallejo @ +140 via DraftKings
• First Set: Vallejo @ -135 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Adolfo Vallejo to win.

Although Vallejo is less than likely to win, he provides the best value at the current available odds.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The ATP Japan Open match between Matteo Berrettini and Adolfo Daniel Vallejo is scheduled to commence on Saturday at 3:00 AM ET.

• Who: Matteo Berrettini vs. Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
• Date: Saturday, October 3, 2026
• Approx. Time: 3:00 AM ET/12:00AM PT
• Tournament: ATP Tokyo, Japan Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Round of 16

All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.

Conclusion

We predict Matteo Berrettini, with a 60% win probability, will likely beat Adolfo Vallejo at the ATP Japan Open tournament.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.