Dream vs. Sun prediction: Why Atlanta is favored to win Thursday's WNBA matchup [8/13/2026]

The Connecticut Sun will face the favored Atlanta Dream in WNBA action at Mohegan Sun Arena on Thursday, beginning at 7:00 PM ET.

Dimers' advanced WNBA model projects the Dream as the most likely winner in this Dream vs. Sun prediction.

The Sun, who have stars like Diamond Miller, Leila Lacan and Brittney Griner, will face off against the Dream, whose lineup includes Allisha Gray, Rhyne Howard and Angel Reese.

This article offers a closer look at Thursday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.

Dream vs. Sun prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's WNBA game between the Dream and Sun, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives the Dream an 82.4% chance of beating the Sun.

According to our model, the bookmakers have got it right, and the Dream and Sun each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 174.5 points has a 50.3% chance of staying under,.

Dream vs. Sun odds

We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Dream -9.5 (-111) / Sun +9.5 (+106)
• Moneyline: Dream -456, Sun +441

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Dream vs. Sun picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Sun +9.5 @ +106 via DraftKings
• Moneyline: Dream @ -456 via Polymarket
• Total: Over 174.5 @ +106 via Novig

According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Sun +9.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Dream vs. Sun player props

Looking for Dream vs. Sun WNBA player props? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Mohegan Sun Arena.

Allisha Gray is expected to lead the Dream with 18 points, 3 rebounds and 3 assists, while Diamond Miller is projected to have 13 points, 3 rebounds and 2 assists for the Sun.

When evaluating the first basket market, Brittney Griner is our top projected player to score first, backed by a 14.6% probability.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Dream prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Dream are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Allisha Gray	18	3	3	2	31
Rhyne Howard	16	4	4	3	34
Angel Reese	16	12	3	1	41
Jordin Canada	11	4	8	1	34
Brionna Jones	9	5	2	0	23

Sun prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Sun:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Diamond Miller	13	3	2	3	24
Leila Lacan	11	3	4	1	27
Brittney Griner	10	5	2	0	23
Aaliyah Edwards	10	5	1	0	22
O. Nelson-Ododa	9	6	2	0	23

Dream vs. Sun game-day updates and essential details

Thursday's game between the Sun and Dream at Mohegan Sun Arena is scheduled to begin at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: Atlanta Dream vs. Connecticut Sun
• Date: Thursday, August 13, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: Mohegan Sun Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Dream, with an 82.4% win probability, will likely beat the Sun in Thursday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.