Dream vs. Mercury prediction: Why Atlanta is favored to win Saturday's WNBA matchup [8/22/2026]

Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Saturday's WNBA game between the Dream and Mercury, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives the Dream a 79.6% chance of defeating the Mercury.

According to our model, the Dream (-7.5) have a 54.2% chance of covering the spread, while the 176.5-point over/under has a 51.0% chance of going over.

Dream vs. Mercury odds

We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Dream -7.5 (-104) / Mercury +7.5 (+100)
• Moneyline: Dream -300, Mercury +285

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Dream vs. Mercury picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Dream -7.5 @ -104 via DraftKings
• Moneyline: Dream @ -300 via BetMGM
• Total: Under 176.5 @ +108 via Polymarket

According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Dream to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Dream vs. Mercury player props

Looking for Atlanta vs. Phoenix WNBA prop bets? We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Mortgage Matchup Center.

Allisha Gray is expected to lead the Dream with 18 points, 4 rebounds and 4 assists, while Kahleah Copper is projected to have 20 points, 4 rebounds and 3 assists for the Mercury.

Shifting focus to the first basket market, our projections highlight Kelsey Plum as the most likely player to open the scoring.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Dream prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Dream are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Allisha Gray	18	4	4	2	33
Rhyne Howard	17	4	4	3	36
Angel Reese	16	12	3	1	43
Jordin Canada	11	4	7	2	32
Naz Hillmon	9	5	2	1	21

Mercury prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Mercury:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Kahleah Copper	20	4	3	2	32
Alyssa Thomas	14	7	8	0	41
Kelsey Plum	12	2	3	1	22
DeWanna Bonner	12	7	1	2	28
Noemie Brochant	6	3	2	1	16

Dream vs. Mercury game-day updates and essential details

Saturday's game between the Mercury and Dream at Mortgage Matchup Center is scheduled to start at 10:00 PM ET.

• Who: Atlanta Dream vs. Phoenix Mercury
• Date: Saturday, August 22, 2026
• Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
• Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center

Conclusion

We predict the Dream, with a 79.6% win probability, will likely beat the Mercury in Saturday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.