Sky vs. Mercury prediction: Why Phoenix is favored to win Tuesday's WNBA matchup [7/7/2026]

WNBA action continues on Tuesday at 10:00 PM ET as the Chicago Sky lock horns with the Phoenix Mercury at Mortgage Matchup Center.

Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced WNBA model predicts the Mercury as the most likely winner of the Sky vs. Mercury game.

The Mercury, with stars like Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas and Valeriane Ayayi, will face off against the Sky, featuring Sydney Taylor, Kamilla Cardoso and Azura Stevens.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Tuesday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.

Sky vs. Mercury prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Tuesday's WNBA game between the Sky and Mercury, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Mercury a 67.4% chance of defeating the Sky.

According to our model, the Mercury (-4.5) have a 50.5% chance of covering the spread, while the 172.5-point over/under has a 61.4% chance of staying under,.

Sky vs. Mercury odds

We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Sky	Mercury
Spread	+4.5 (-114)	-4.5 (-105)
Moneyline	+145	-172
Total	o172.5 (-106)	u172.5 (-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Sky vs. Mercury picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Mercury -4.5	-105
Moneyline	Mercury	-172
Total	Under 172.5	-110

According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 172.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Sky vs. Mercury player props

WNBA player props are a common way to wager on Tuesday's Chicago vs. Phoenix game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Mortgage Matchup Center.

Sydney Taylor is expected to lead the Sky with 19 points, 2 rebounds and 2 assists, while Kahleah Copper is projected to have 20 points, 4 rebounds and 2 assists for the Mercury.

Looking at the opening tip, the numbers point to Kamilla Cardoso striking first with a 14.4% probability.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Sky prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Sky are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Sydney Taylor	19	2	2	3	31
Kamilla Cardoso	14	9	3	0	34
Azura Stevens	13	9	2	2	34
Natasha Cloud	11	4	5	1	28
Gabriela Jaquez	7	3	1	1	15

Mercury prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Mercury:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Kahleah Copper	20	4	2	2	31
Alyssa Thomas	16	9	9	0	47
Valeriane Ayayi	12	5	3	1	26
DeWanna Bonner	11	6	1	1	26
Alexa Held	10	2	2	2	20

Sky vs. Mercury game-day updates and essential details

Tuesday's game between the Mercury and Sky at Mortgage Matchup Center is scheduled to begin at 10:00 PM ET.

• Who: Chicago Sky vs. Phoenix Mercury
• Date: Tuesday, July 7, 2026
• Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
• Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center

Conclusion

We predict the Mercury, with a 67.4% win probability, will likely beat the Sky in Tuesday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.