Sun vs. Aces prediction: Las Vegas favored to win Thursday's WNBA game [8/20/2026]

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Thursday's WNBA game between the Sun and Aces, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives the Aces an 87.8% chance of defeating the Sun.

According to our model, the Sun (+14.5) have a 58.0% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 168.5 points has a 56.3% chance of going over,.

Sun vs. Aces odds

We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Sun +14.5 (-107) / Aces -14.5 (+104)
• Moneyline: Sun +900, Aces -1011

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Sun vs. Aces picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Sun +14.5 @ -107 via DraftKings
• Moneyline: Sun @ +900 via Polymarket
• Total: Over 168.5 @ +100 via Polymarket

According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 168.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Sun vs. Aces player props

Looking for Sun vs. Aces WNBA prop bets? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Michelob ULTRA Arena.

Kennedy Burke is expected to lead the Sun with 12 points, 4 rebounds and 1 assists, while A'ja Wilson is projected to have 27 points, 10 rebounds and 3 assists for the Aces.

Looking at the opening tip, the numbers point to A'ja Wilson striking first with a 14.2% probability.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Sun prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Sun are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Kennedy Burke	12	4	1	2	25
Leila Lacan	10	2	5	1	26
O. Nelson-Ododa	10	7	1	0	26
Diamond Miller	10	3	2	2	20
Raegan Beers	7	6	1	0	19

Aces prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Aces:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
A'ja Wilson	27	10	3	1	53
Jackie Young	19	4	7	4	40
Chelsea Gray	11	3	7	2	31
NaLyssa Smith	11	7	1	0	25
Jewell Loyd	8	3	2	2	17

Sun vs. Aces game-day updates and essential details

Thursday's matchup between the Aces and Sun at Michelob ULTRA Arena is scheduled to start at 10:00 PM ET.

• Who: Connecticut Sun vs. Las Vegas Aces
• Date: Thursday, August 20, 2026
• Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
• Venue: Michelob ULTRA Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Aces, with an 87.8% win probability, will likely beat the Sun in Thursday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.