Sun vs. Aces prediction: Las Vegas favored to win Thursday's WNBA game [8/20/2026]

The Las Vegas Aces and Connecticut Sun will lock horns in the WNBA at Michelob ULTRA Arena on Thursday, with tipoff at 10:00 PM ET.

Dimers' proven WNBA model projects the Aces as the most likely winner in this Sun vs. Aces prediction.

The Aces, powered by A'ja Wilson, Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray, will face off against the Sun, featuring Kennedy Burke, Leila Lacan and Olivia Nelson-Ododa.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Thursday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.

Sun vs. Aces prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Thursday's WNBA matchup between the Sun and Aces, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives the Aces an 87.8% chance of defeating the Sun.

According to our model, the Sun (+14.5) have a 58.0% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 167.5 points has a 57.0% chance of going over,.

Sun vs. Aces odds

We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Sun +14.5 (-104) / Aces -14.5 (+100)
• Moneyline: Sun +1011, Aces -1100

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Sun vs. Aces picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Sun +14.5 @ -104 via DraftKings
• Moneyline: Sun @ +1011 via Polymarket
• Total: Over 167.5 @ -114 via FanDuel

According to our best WNBA bets, the top play to make on this game is Sun +14.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Sun vs. Aces player props

Betting on Connecticut vs. Las Vegas WNBA prop bets? We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Michelob ULTRA Arena.

Kennedy Burke is expected to lead the Sun with 12 points, 4 rebounds and 1 assists, while A'ja Wilson is projected to have 27 points, 10 rebounds and 3 assists for the Aces.

Shifting focus to the first basket market, our projections highlight A'ja Wilson as the most likely player to open the scoring.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Sun prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Sun are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Kennedy Burke	12	4	1	2	25
Leila Lacan	10	2	5	1	27
O. Nelson-Ododa	10	7	1	0	26
Diamond Miller	10	3	2	2	21
Raegan Beers	7	6	1	0	19

Aces prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Aces:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
A'ja Wilson	27	10	3	1	53
Jackie Young	19	4	7	4	40
Chelsea Gray	11	3	7	2	31
NaLyssa Smith	11	7	1	0	25
Jewell Loyd	8	3	2	2	18

Sun vs. Aces game-day updates and essential details

Thursday's game between the Aces and Sun at Michelob ULTRA Arena is scheduled to start at 10:00 PM ET.

• Who: Connecticut Sun vs. Las Vegas Aces
• Date: Thursday, August 20, 2026
• Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
• Venue: Michelob ULTRA Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Aces, with an 87.8% win probability, will likely beat the Sun in Thursday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.