Sun vs. Sparks prediction: Los Angeles favored to win Saturday's WNBA matchup [8/22/2026]

The Los Angeles Sparks will face the Connecticut Sun in WNBA action at Crypto.com Arena on Saturday, starting at 9:00 PM ET.

Dimers' proven WNBA model projects the Sparks as the most likely winner in this Sun vs. Sparks prediction.

The Sparks, who have the likes of Nneka Ogwumike, Dearica Hamby and Rae Burrell, are set to take on the Sun, whose lineup includes Olivia Nelson-Ododa, Kennedy Burke and Leila Lacan.

This article offers a closer look at Saturday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.

Sun vs. Sparks prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's WNBA matchup between the Sun and Sparks, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives the Sparks a 71.8% chance of defeating the Sun.

According to our model, the Sparks (-5.5) have a 51.1% chance of covering the spread, while the 171.5-point over/under has a 50.6% chance of going over.

Sun vs. Sparks odds

We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Sun +5.5 (-108) / Sparks -5.5 (+106)
• Moneyline: Sun +182, Sparks -186

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Sun vs. Sparks picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Sparks -5.5 @ +106 via DraftKings
• Moneyline: Sparks @ -186 via Novig
• Total: Over 171.5 @ -104 via Novig

According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Sparks to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Sun vs. Sparks player props

WNBA player props are a popular way to wager on the Sun vs. Sparks game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Crypto.com Arena.

Olivia Nelson-Ododa is expected to lead the Sun with 11 points, 7 rebounds and 2 assists, while Nneka Ogwumike is projected to have 16 points, 8 rebounds and 4 assists for the Sparks.

Shifting focus to the first basket market, our projections highlight Olivia Nelson-Ododa as the most likely player to open the scoring.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Sun prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Sun are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
O. Nelson-Ododa	11	7	2	0	28
Kennedy Burke	10	3	1	2	22
Leila Lacan	10	2	5	1	26
Diamond Miller	9	3	2	1	18
Saniya Rivers	8	4	3	1	21

Sparks prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Sparks:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Nneka Ogwumike	16	8	4	1	37
Dearica Hamby	15	7	3	0	33
Rae Burrell	14	3	4	2	29
Cameron Brink	9	6	2	1	26
Ariel Atkins	8	3	2	1	20

Sun vs. Sparks game-day updates and essential details

Saturday's matchup between the Sparks and Sun at Crypto.com Arena is scheduled to start at 9:00 PM ET.

• Who: Connecticut Sun vs. Los Angeles Sparks
• Date: Saturday, August 22, 2026
• Time: 9:00 PM ET/6:00PM PT
• Venue: Crypto.com Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Sparks, with a 71.8% win probability, will likely beat the Sun in Saturday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.