Sun vs. Lynx prediction: Why Minnesota is favored to win Monday's WNBA matchup [7/6/2026]

The Minnesota Lynx will take on the Connecticut Sun in WNBA action at Target Center on Monday, commencing at 8:00 PM ET.

Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced WNBA model predicts the Lynx as the most likely winner of the Sun vs. Lynx game.

The Lynx, with stars such as Natasha Howard, Courtney Williams and Kayla McBride, are set to take on the Sun, featuring Brittney Griner, Leila Lacan and Olivia Nelson-Ododa.

This article offers a closer look at Monday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.

Sun vs. Lynx prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Monday's WNBA game between the Sun and Lynx, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives the Lynx an 81.0% chance of defeating the Sun.

According to our model, the Sun (+11.5) have a 60.1% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 165.5 points has a 56.8% chance of staying under,.

Sun vs. Lynx odds

We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Sun	Lynx
Spread	+11.5 (-102)	-11.5 (-115)
Moneyline	+550	-750
Total	o165.5 (-105)	u165.5 (-112)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Sun vs. Lynx picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Sun +11.5	-102
Moneyline	Sun	+550
Total	Under 165.5	-112

According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Sun +11.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Sun vs. Lynx player props

WNBA prop bets are an exciting way to wager on the Sun vs. Lynx game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Target Center.

Brittney Griner is expected to lead the Sun with 12 points, 6 rebounds and 2 assists, while Natasha Howard is projected to have 17 points, 9 rebounds and 3 assists for the Lynx.

For early game action, the data identifies Natasha Howard as the most probable player to secure the first basket.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Sun prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Sun are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Brittney Griner	12	6	2	0	26
Leila Lacan	12	2	4	1	28
O. Nelson-Ododa	9	5	1	0	21
Diamond Miller	8	2	1	1	17
Kennedy Burke	8	3	1	1	18

Lynx prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Lynx:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Natasha Howard	17	9	3	0	39
C. Williams	17	6	6	1	40
Kayla McBride	17	3	3	3	32
Nia Coffey	10	6	2	2	27
Maya Caldwell	9	5	3	2	23

Sun vs. Lynx game-day updates and essential details

Monday's game between the Lynx and Sun at Target Center is scheduled to start at 8:00 PM ET.

• Who: Connecticut Sun vs. Minnesota Lynx
• Date: Monday, July 6, 2026
• Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
• Venue: Target Center

Conclusion

We predict the Lynx, with an 81.0% win probability, will likely beat the Sun in Monday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.