Sun vs. Mercury prediction: Why Phoenix is favored to win Sunday's WNBA matchup [7/19/2026]

The Phoenix Mercury and Connecticut Sun will meet in the WNBA at Mortgage Matchup Center on Sunday, starting at 7:00 PM ET.

Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven WNBA model predicts the Mercury as the most likely winner of the Sun vs. Mercury game.

The Mercury, powered by Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner, will face off against the Sun, featuring Leila Lacan, Brittney Griner and Olivia Nelson-Ododa.

This article offers a closer look at Sunday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.

Sun vs. Mercury prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Sunday's WNBA matchup between the Sun and Mercury, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives the Mercury a 68.4% chance of defeating the Sun.

According to our model, the Mercury (-4.5) have a 51.2% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 165.5 points has a 55.1% chance of staying under,.

Sun vs. Mercury odds

We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Sun	Mercury
Spread	+4.5 (-110)	-4.5 (-108)
Moneyline	+186	-170
Total	o165.5 (-108)	u165.5 (-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Sun vs. Mercury picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Mercury -4.5	-108
Moneyline	Mercury	-170
Total	Under 165.5	-110

According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Mercury to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Sun vs. Mercury player props

Looking for Sun vs. Mercury WNBA player props? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Mortgage Matchup Center.

Leila Lacan is expected to lead the Sun with 14 points, 2 rebounds and 5 assists, while Kahleah Copper is projected to have 21 points, 4 rebounds and 2 assists for the Mercury.

When evaluating the first basket market, Kahleah Copper is our top projected player to score first, backed by a 15% probability.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Sun prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Sun are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Leila Lacan	14	2	5	1	31
Brittney Griner	13	6	2	0	28
O. Nelson-Ododa	12	7	2	0	29
Diamond Miller	10	3	2	1	20
Kennedy Burke	9	3	2	1	20

Mercury prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Mercury:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Kahleah Copper	21	4	2	2	32
Alyssa Thomas	15	8	9	0	44
DeWanna Bonner	10	5	1	1	22
M. Akoa-Makani	9	2	3	1	19
Alexa Held	8	2	2	1	16

Sun vs. Mercury game-day updates and essential details

Sunday's game between the Mercury and Sun at Mortgage Matchup Center is scheduled to commence at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury
• Date: Sunday, July 19, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center

Conclusion

We predict the Mercury, with a 68.4% win probability, will likely beat the Sun in Sunday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.