Fever vs. Dream prediction: Caitlin Clark projected to score 23 points in Sunday's WNBA game [8/16/2026]

The Atlanta Dream will take on the Indiana Fever in WNBA action at State Farm Arena on Sunday, commencing at 5:00 PM ET.

Dimers' advanced WNBA model projects the Dream as the most likely winner in this Fever vs. Dream prediction.

The Dream, with stars like Allisha Gray, Rhyne Howard and Angel Reese, will face off against the Fever, whose lineup includes Kelsey Mitchell, Caitlin Clark and Aliyah Boston.

Clark, the Fever's No. 1 pick in the 2024 WNBA draft, is expected to shine with a projected 23 points and 3 threes.

This article offers a closer look at Sunday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.

Fever vs. Dream prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's WNBA matchup between the Fever and Dream, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives the Dream a 59.5% chance of beating the Fever.

According to our model, the Dream (-1.5) have a 54.7% chance of covering the spread, while the 188.5-point over/under has a 58.6% chance of staying under,.

Fever vs. Dream odds

We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Fever +1.5 (-117) / Dream -1.5 (+113)
• Moneyline: Fever -105, Dream +106

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Fever vs. Dream picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Dream -1.5 @ +113 via DraftKings
• Moneyline: Dream @ +106 via Novig
• Total: Under 188.5 @ -104 via Novig

According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Dream to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Fever vs. Dream player props

Betting on Indiana vs. Atlanta WNBA prop bets? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at State Farm Arena.

Kelsey Mitchell is expected to lead the Fever with 25 points, 2 rebounds and 3 assists, while Allisha Gray is projected to have 18 points, 4 rebounds and 3 assists for the Dream.

Looking at the opening tip, the numbers point to Kelsey Mitchell striking first with a 16.1% probability.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Fever prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Fever are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Kelsey Mitchell	25	2	3	3	38
Caitlin Clark	23	4	10	3	51
Aliyah Boston	16	9	3	1	39
S. Cunningham	8	3	1	2	16
Makayla Timpson	6	6	1	0	21

Dream prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Dream:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Allisha Gray	18	4	3	2	33
Rhyne Howard	16	4	4	5	36
Angel Reese	16	12	3	0	42
Naz Hillmon	9	5	2	1	21
Madina Okot	8	6	1	0	20

Fever vs. Dream game-day updates and essential details

Sunday's matchup between the Dream and Fever at State Farm Arena is scheduled to commence at 5:00 PM ET.

• Who: Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream
• Date: Sunday, August 16, 2026
• Time: 5:00 PM ET/2:00PM PT
• Venue: State Farm Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Dream, with a 59.5% win probability, will likely beat the Fever in Sunday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.