Fever vs. Liberty prediction: Caitlin Clark projected to score 22 points in Saturday's WNBA game [8/22/2026]

The New York Liberty and Indiana Fever are scheduled to meet in the WNBA at Barclays Center on Saturday, starting at 7:00 PM ET.

Dimers' proven WNBA model projects the Liberty as the most likely winner in this Fever vs. Liberty prediction.

The Liberty, with star players such as Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu and Jonquel Jones, are set to take on the Fever, who feature Kelsey Mitchell, Caitlin Clark and Aliyah Boston.

Clark, the Fever's No. 1 pick in the 2024 WNBA draft, is expected to shine with a projected 22 points and 3 threes.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Saturday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.

Fever vs. Liberty prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's WNBA game between the Fever and Liberty, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives the Liberty a 57.2% chance of defeating the Fever.

According to our model, the Liberty (-1.5) have a 52.2% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 187.5 points has a 57.7% chance of staying under.

Fever vs. Liberty odds

We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Fever +1.5 (+100) / Liberty -1.5 (-109)
• Moneyline: Fever +115, Liberty -125

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Fever vs. Liberty picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Liberty -1.5 @ -109 via DraftKings
• Moneyline: Liberty @ -125 via BetRivers
• Total: Under 187.5 @ -108 via Polymarket

According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 187.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Fever vs. Liberty player props

WNBA prop bets are an enjoyable way to wager on the Indiana vs. New York matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Barclays Center.

Kelsey Mitchell is expected to lead the Fever with 26 points, 2 rebounds and 3 assists, while Breanna Stewart is projected to have 18 points, 7 rebounds and 3 assists for the Liberty.

Looking at the opening tip, the numbers point to Kelsey Mitchell striking first with a 15.8% probability.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Fever prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Fever are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Kelsey Mitchell	26	2	3	3	38
Caitlin Clark	22	4	9	3	49
Aliyah Boston	16	9	3	1	40
Makayla Timpson	8	8	1	0	24
S. Cunningham	7	3	1	2	15

Liberty prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Liberty:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Breanna Stewart	18	7	3	1	38
Sabrina Ionescu	14	4	5	2	32
Jonquel Jones	12	8	3	2	31
Rebecca Allen	10	3	1	2	20
Marine Johannes	9	3	3	3	21

Fever vs. Liberty game-day updates and essential details

Saturday's action between the Liberty and Fever at Barclays Center is scheduled to begin at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty
• Date: Saturday, August 22, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: Barclays Center

Conclusion

We predict the Liberty, with a 57.2% win probability, will likely beat the Fever in Saturday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.