Fever vs. Liberty prediction: Caitlin Clark projected to score 22 points in Saturday's WNBA game [8/22/2026]

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Saturday's WNBA game between the Fever and Liberty, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Liberty a 63.3% chance of defeating the Fever.

According to our model, the Fever (+3.5) have a 50.1% chance of covering the spread, while the 186.5-point over/under has a 54.5% chance of staying under.

Fever vs. Liberty odds

We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Fever +3.5 (-104) / Liberty -3.5 (+100)
• Moneyline: Fever +150, Liberty -156

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Fever vs. Liberty picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Liberty -3.5 @ +100 via DraftKings
• Moneyline: Liberty @ -156 via Polymarket
• Total: Under 186.5 @ +100 via Polymarket

According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 186.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Fever vs. Liberty player props

WNBA player props are an enjoyable way to wager on the Indiana vs. New York matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Barclays Center.

Kelsey Mitchell is expected to lead the Fever with 26 points, 2 rebounds and 3 assists, while Breanna Stewart is projected to have 18 points, 7 rebounds and 3 assists for the Liberty.

For early game action, the data identifies Kelsey Mitchell as the most probable player to secure the first basket.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Fever prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Fever are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Kelsey Mitchell	26	2	3	3	38
Caitlin Clark	22	4	9	3	49
Aliyah Boston	16	9	3	1	40
Makayla Timpson	8	8	1	0	24
S. Cunningham	7	3	1	2	15

Liberty prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Liberty:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Breanna Stewart	18	7	3	1	38
Sabrina Ionescu	15	4	5	2	32
Jonquel Jones	12	8	3	2	31
Rebecca Allen	10	3	1	2	20
Marine Johannes	9	3	3	3	21

Fever vs. Liberty game-day updates and essential details

Saturday's action between the Liberty and Fever at Barclays Center is scheduled to commence at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty
• Date: Saturday, August 22, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: Barclays Center

Conclusion

We predict the Liberty, with a 63.3% win probability, will likely beat the Fever in Saturday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.