Fever vs. Mercury prediction: Why Phoenix is favored to win Thursday's WNBA matchup [7/9/2026]

The Phoenix Mercury and Indiana Fever will lock horns in the WNBA at Mortgage Matchup Center on Thursday, with tipoff at 10:00 PM ET.

Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven WNBA model gives the Mercury a slight edge with a 50.1% win probability over the Fever.

The Mercury, with stars like Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas and Valeriane Ayayi, will face off against the Fever, who feature Kelsey Mitchell, Aliyah Boston and Tyasha Harris.

Fever superstar Cailtin Clark will miss the game though, with the USBWNT guard set to be on the sidelines for this one.

This article offers a closer look at Thursday's Fever vs. Mercury matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.

Fever vs. Mercury prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Thursday's WNBA matchup between the Fever and Mercury, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Mercury a 50.1% chance of defeating the Fever.

According to our model, the Mercury (+1.5) have a 55.7% chance of covering the spread, while the 171.5-point over/under has a 58.7% chance of staying under,.

Fever vs. Mercury odds

We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Fever	Mercury
Spread	-1.5 (+100)	+1.5 (-102)
Moneyline	-114	+108
Total	o171.5 (-110)	u171.5 (+102)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Fever vs. Mercury picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Mercury +1.5	novig-102
Moneyline	Mercury	novig+108
Total	Under 171.5	novig+102

According to our best WNBA bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 171.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Fever vs. Mercury player props

WNBA prop bets are a great way to wager on Thursday's Indiana vs. Phoenix game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Mortgage Matchup Center.

Kelsey Mitchell is expected to lead the Fever with 23 points, 2 rebounds and 3 assists, while Kahleah Copper is projected to have 19 points, 3 rebounds and 1 assists for the Mercury.

Shifting focus to the first basket market, our projections highlight Kahleah Copper as the most likely player to open the scoring.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Fever prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Fever are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Kelsey Mitchell	23	2	3	3	35
Aliyah Boston	15	9	4	1	38
Tyasha Harris	10	2	3	1	21
S. Cunningham	7	3	1	2	14
M. Billings	7	5	1	0	17

Mercury prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Mercury:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Kahleah Copper	19	3	1	2	29
Alyssa Thomas	16	7	9	0	44
Valeriane Ayayi	13	5	2	1	27
DeWanna Bonner	12	5	1	1	26
Alexa Held	8	2	2	1	17

Fever vs. Mercury game-day updates and essential details

Thursday's matchup between the Mercury and Fever at Mortgage Matchup Center is scheduled to start at 10:00 PM ET.

• Who: Indiana Fever vs. Phoenix Mercury
• Date: Thursday, July 9, 2026
• Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
• Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center

Conclusion

We predict the Mercury, with a 50.1% win probability, will likely beat the Fever in Thursday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.