Aces vs. Mercury prediction: Why Las Vegas is favored to win Wednesday's WNBA matchup [6/17/2026]

The Phoenix Mercury will take on the favored Las Vegas Aces in WNBA action at Mortgage Matchup Center on Wednesday, beginning at 10:00 PM ET.

Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced WNBA model projects the Aces as the most likely winner of the Aces vs. Mercury game.

The Mercury, with the likes of Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner, will face off against the Aces, whose lineup includes A'ja Wilson, Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray.

This article offers a closer look at Wednesday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.

Aces vs. Mercury prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Wednesday's WNBA game between the Aces and Mercury, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives the Aces an 80.1% chance of defeating the Mercury.

According to our model, the Aces (-6.5) have a 58.8% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 171.5 points has a 57.0% chance of staying under,.

Aces vs. Mercury odds

We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Aces	Mercury
Spread	-6.5 (-110)	+6.5 (-110)
Moneyline	-275	+225
Total	o171.5 (-110)	u171.5 (-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Aces vs. Mercury picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Aces -6.5	-110
Moneyline	Aces	-275
Total	Under 171.5	-110

According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Aces to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Aces vs. Mercury player props

WNBA prop bets are an enjoyable way to wager on Wednesday's Las Vegas vs. Phoenix game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Mortgage Matchup Center.

A'ja Wilson is expected to lead the Aces with 26 points, 11 rebounds and 4 assists, while Kahleah Copper is projected to have 17 points, 3 rebounds and 1 assists for the Mercury.

For early game action, the data identifies A'ja Wilson as the most probable player to secure the first basket.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Aces prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Aces are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
A'ja Wilson	26	11	4	1	54
Jackie Young	18	5	7	2	40
Chelsea Gray	12	4	7	2	35
Jewell Loyd	10	3	1	2	20
NaLyssa Smith	10	7	1	0	22

Mercury prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Mercury:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Kahleah Copper	17	3	1	2	27
Alyssa Thomas	15	9	8	0	44
DeWanna Bonner	10	5	1	1	21
M. Akoa-Makani	9	2	3	1	20
Natasha Mack	8	9	1	0	25

Aces vs. Mercury game-day updates and essential details

Wednesday's action between the Mercury and Aces at Mortgage Matchup Center is scheduled to begin at 10:00 PM ET.

• Who: Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury
• Date: Wednesday, June 17, 2026
• Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
• Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center

Conclusion

We predict the Aces, with an 80.1% win probability, will likely beat the Mercury in Wednesday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.