Aces vs. Fire prediction: Why Las Vegas is favored to win Thursday's WNBA matchup [6/11/2026]

The Portland Fire and Las Vegas Aces are scheduled to meet in the WNBA at Moda Center on Thursday, with tipoff at 10:00 PM ET.

Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced WNBA model predicts the Aces as the most likely winner of the Aces vs. Fire game.

The Fire, led by Carla Leite, Megan Gustafson and Sarah Barker, are set to take on the Aces, featuring A'ja Wilson, Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray.

This article offers a closer look at Thursday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.

Aces vs. Fire prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Thursday's WNBA matchup between the Aces and Fire, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives the Aces an 85.4% chance of beating the Fire.

According to our model, the Fire (+11.5) have a 51.5% chance of covering the spread, while the 170.5-point over/under has a 53.4% chance of staying under,.

Aces vs. Fire odds

We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Aces	Fire
Spread	-11.5 (-105)	+11.5 (-110)
Moneyline	-520	+410
Total	o170.5 (-108)	u170.5 (-105)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Aces vs. Fire picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Fire +11.5	-110
Moneyline	Aces	-520
Total	Under 170.5	-105

According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 170.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Aces vs. Fire player props

WNBA player props are an exciting way to wager on the Las Vegas vs. Portland matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Moda Center.

A'ja Wilson is expected to lead the Aces with 30 points, 10 rebounds and 4 assists, while Carla Leite is projected to have 12 points, 2 rebounds and 3 assists for the Fire.

Looking at the opening tip, the numbers point to A'ja Wilson striking first with a 16.2% probability.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Aces prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Aces are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
A'ja Wilson	30	10	4	1	59
Jackie Young	19	5	7	2	41
Chelsea Gray	11	4	7	1	35
Jewell Loyd	10	3	1	2	20
Chennedy Carter	10	2	2	0	17

Fire prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Fire:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Carla Leite	12	2	3	1	22
Megan Gustafson	10	4	1	1	19
Sarah Barker	8	4	2	1	20
B. Carleton	8	4	2	2	19
Emily Engstler	8	6	2	1	25

Aces vs. Fire game-day updates and essential details

Thursday's game between the Fire and Aces at Moda Center is scheduled to commence at 10:00 PM ET.

• Who: Las Vegas Aces vs. Portland Fire
• Date: Thursday, June 11, 2026
• Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
• Venue: Moda Center

Conclusion

We predict the Aces, with an 85.4% win probability, will likely beat the Fire in Thursday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.