Lynx vs. Mercury prediction: Why Minnesota is favored to win Monday's WNBA matchup [6/1/2026]

The Phoenix Mercury will square off with the Minnesota Lynx in WNBA action at Mortgage Matchup Center on Monday, commencing at 10:00 PM ET.

Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven WNBA model predicts the Lynx as the most likely winner of the Lynx vs. Mercury game.

The Mercury, who have star players like Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner, are set to take on the Lynx, who feature Kayla McBride, Courtney Williams and Olivia Miles.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Monday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.

Lynx vs. Mercury prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Monday's WNBA game between the Lynx and Mercury, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives the Lynx a 59% chance of beating the Mercury.

According to our model, the bookmakers have got it right, and the Lynx and Mercury each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 166.5 points has a 54% chance of staying under.

Lynx vs. Mercury odds

We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Lynx	Mercury
Spread	-2.5 (-110)	+2.5 (-106)
Moneyline	-148	+130
Total	o166.5 (-108)	u166.5 (-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Lynx vs. Mercury picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Mercury +2.5	-106
Moneyline	Lynx	-148
Total	Under 166.5	-110

According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 166.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Lynx vs. Mercury player props

Betting on Minnesota vs. Phoenix WNBA prop bets? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Mortgage Matchup Center.

Kayla McBride is expected to lead the Lynx with 16 points, 3 rebounds and 3 assists, while Kahleah Copper is projected to have 18 points, 3 rebounds and 2 assists for the Mercury.

Looking at the opening tip, the numbers point to Natasha Howard striking first with a 13.1% probability.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Lynx prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Lynx are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Kayla McBride	16	3	3	3	30
C. Williams	16	5	6	2	38
Olivia Miles	14	5	5	1	33
Natasha Howard	13	8	2	0	31
Nia Coffey	10	7	2	2	26

Mercury prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Mercury:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Kahleah Copper	18	3	2	2	29
Alyssa Thomas	16	10	10	0	48
DeWanna Bonner	9	5	1	1	20
M. Akoa-Makani	8	2	3	1	19
Jovana Nogic	8	1	1	2	12

Lynx vs. Mercury game-day updates and essential details

Monday's action between the Mercury and Lynx at Mortgage Matchup Center is scheduled to start at 10:00 PM ET.

• Who: Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury
• Date: Monday, June 1, 2026
• Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
• Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center

Conclusion

We predict the Lynx, with a 59% win probability, will likely beat the Mercury in Monday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.