Liberty vs. Dream prediction: Why Atlanta is favored to win Thursday's WNBA game [6/11/2026]

WNBA action continues on Thursday at 7:30 PM ET as the New York Liberty square off with the Atlanta Dream at Gateway Center Arena.

Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced WNBA model predicts the Dream as the most likely winner of the Liberty vs. Dream game.

The Dream, with star players like Allisha Gray, Rhyne Howard and Angel Reese, will face off against the Liberty, who feature Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones and Satou Sabally.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Thursday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.

Liberty vs. Dream prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's WNBA matchup between the Liberty and Dream, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives the Dream a 69.4% chance of beating the Liberty.

According to our model, the Dream (-3.5) have a 56.0% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 165.5 points has a 50.8% chance of staying under,.

Liberty vs. Dream odds

We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Liberty	Dream
Spread	+3.5 (-108)	-3.5 (-110)
Moneyline	+135	-155
Total	o165.5 (-108)	u165.5 (-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Liberty vs. Dream picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Dream -3.5	-110
Moneyline	Dream	-155
Total	Under 165.5	-110

According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Dream to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Liberty vs. Dream player props

WNBA prop bets are a common way to wager on the New York vs. Atlanta game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Gateway Center Arena.

Breanna Stewart is expected to lead the Liberty with 19 points, 7 rebounds and 3 assists, while Allisha Gray is projected to have 19 points, 6 rebounds and 3 assists for the Dream.

When evaluating the first basket market, Breanna Stewart is our top projected player to score first, backed by a 13.1% probability.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Liberty prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Liberty are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Breanna Stewart	19	7	3	1	40
Jonquel Jones	14	8	3	1	34
Satou Sabally	11	4	2	1	22
Pauline Astier	10	3	3	1	21
Marine Johannes	9	2	2	2	19

Dream prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Dream:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Allisha Gray	19	6	3	2	35
Rhyne Howard	18	5	4	3	37
Angel Reese	15	13	4	0	42
Jordin Canada	12	4	6	1	32
Naz Hillmon	10	7	3	2	27

Liberty vs. Dream game-day updates and essential details

Thursday's game between the Dream and Liberty at Gateway Center Arena is scheduled to commence at 7:30 PM ET.

• Who: New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream
• Date: Thursday, June 11, 2026
• Time: 7:30 PM ET/4:30PM PT
• Venue: Gateway Center Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Dream, with a 69.4% win probability, will likely beat the Liberty in Thursday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.