Liberty vs. Sun prediction: Why New York is favored to win Monday's WNBA matchup [6/8/2026]

The Connecticut Sun will face the favored New York Liberty in WNBA action at Mohegan Sun Arena on Monday, starting at 7:00 PM ET.

Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven WNBA model predicts the Liberty as the most likely winner of the Liberty vs. Sun game.

The Sun, who have the likes of Leila Lacan, Diamond Miller and Saniya Rivers, will face off against the Liberty, featuring Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones and Satou Sabally.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Monday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.

Liberty vs. Sun prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Monday's WNBA matchup between the Liberty and Sun, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives the Liberty an 80.6% chance of defeating the Sun.

According to our model, the Sun (+12.5) have a 62.4% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 163.5 points has a 55.1% chance of staying under.

Liberty vs. Sun odds

We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Liberty	Sun
Spread	-12.5 (-118)	+12.5 (-104)
Moneyline	-900	+650
Total	o163.5 (-110)	u163.5 (-105)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Liberty vs. Sun picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Sun +12.5	-104
Moneyline	Sun	+650
Total	Under 163.5	-105

According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Sun +12.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Liberty vs. Sun player props

WNBA player props are an enjoyable way to wager on the Liberty vs. Sun matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Mohegan Sun Arena.

Breanna Stewart is expected to lead the Liberty with 20 points, 8 rebounds and 4 assists, while Leila Lacan is projected to have 11 points, 3 rebounds and 4 assists for the Sun.

Looking at the opening tip, the numbers point to Leila Lacan striking first with a 13.4% probability.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Liberty prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Liberty are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Breanna Stewart	20	8	4	1	43
Jonquel Jones	15	9	3	2	36
Satou Sabally	12	4	2	2	24
Pauline Astier	12	3	4	1	25
Marine Johannes	10	3	3	2	22

Sun prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Sun:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Leila Lacan	11	3	4	1	25
Diamond Miller	9	3	1	1	18
Saniya Rivers	8	3	3	1	21
Nell Angloma	8	2	0	0	16
Aaliyah Edwards	7	5	1	0	18

Liberty vs. Sun game-day updates and essential details

Monday's game between the Sun and Liberty at Mohegan Sun Arena is scheduled to commence at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: New York Liberty vs. Connecticut Sun
• Date: Monday, June 8, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: Mohegan Sun Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Liberty, with an 80.6% win probability, will likely beat the Sun in Monday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.