Liberty vs. Sparks prediction: New York favored to win Sunday's WNBA matchup [6/21/2026]

WNBA action continues on Sunday at 8:00 PM ET as the New York Liberty take on the Los Angeles Sparks at Crypto.com Arena.

Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven WNBA model predicts the Liberty as the most likely winner of the Liberty vs. Sparks game.

The Sparks, powered by Nneka Ogwumike, Kelsey Plum and Dearica Hamby, will face off against the Liberty, whose lineup includes Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu and Jonquel Jones.

This article offers a closer look at Sunday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.

Liberty vs. Sparks prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Sunday's WNBA game between the Liberty and Sparks, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives the Liberty a 73.4% chance of defeating the Sparks.

According to our model, the Liberty (-5.5) have a 54.6% chance of covering the spread, while the 181.5-point over/under has a 65.0% chance of staying under,.

Liberty vs. Sparks odds

We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Liberty	Sparks
Spread	-5.5 (-105)	+5.5 (-108)
Moneyline	-215	+180
Total	o181.5 (-110)	u181.5 (-108)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Liberty vs. Sparks picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Liberty -5.5	-105
Moneyline	Liberty	-215
Total	Under 181.5	-108

According to our best WNBA bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 181.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Liberty vs. Sparks player props

WNBA player props are a popular way to wager on Sunday's New York vs. Los Angeles game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Crypto.com Arena.

Breanna Stewart is expected to lead the Liberty with 20 points, 8 rebounds and 4 assists, while Nneka Ogwumike is projected to have 19 points, 7 rebounds and 2 assists for the Sparks.

When evaluating the first basket market, Kelsey Plum is our top projected player to score first, backed by a 15.7% probability.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Liberty prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Liberty are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Breanna Stewart	20	8	4	1	44
Sabrina Ionescu	16	4	6	2	35
Jonquel Jones	14	9	3	2	35
Satou Sabally	12	4	2	2	23
Marine Johannes	8	2	2	2	18

Sparks prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Sparks:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Nneka Ogwumike	19	7	2	2	36
Kelsey Plum	18	3	5	2	34
Dearica Hamby	16	7	3	0	34
Ariel Atkins	12	3	3	1	27
Rae Burrell	10	3	2	1	20

Liberty vs. Sparks game-day updates and essential details

Sunday's matchup between the Sparks and Liberty at Crypto.com Arena is scheduled to begin at 8:00 PM ET.

• Who: New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks
• Date: Sunday, June 21, 2026
• Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
• Venue: Crypto.com Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Liberty, with a 73.4% win probability, will likely beat the Sparks in Sunday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.