Liberty vs. Storm prediction: New York favored to win Thursday's WNBA game [6/25/2026]

The Seattle Storm will face the favored New York Liberty in WNBA action at Climate Pledge Arena on Thursday, commencing at 10:00 PM ET.

Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven WNBA model predicts the Liberty as the most likely winner of the Liberty vs. Storm game.

The Storm, with the likes of Natisha Hiedeman, Dominique Malonga and Flau'jae Johnson, will face off against the Liberty, whose lineup includes Jonquel Jones, Sabrina Ionescu and Pauline Astier.

This article offers further insights into Thursday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.

Liberty vs. Storm prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's WNBA matchup between the Liberty and Storm, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Liberty a 72.8% chance of defeating the Storm.

According to our model, the Storm (+8.5) have a 58.0% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 167.5 points has a 53.9% chance of staying under,.

Liberty vs. Storm odds

We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Liberty	Storm
Spread	-8.5 (-110)	+8.5 (-105)
Moneyline	-350	+290
Total	o167.5 (-110)	u167.5 (-106)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Liberty vs. Storm picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Storm +8.5	-105
Moneyline	Storm	+290
Total	Under 167.5	-106

According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Storm +8.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Liberty vs. Storm player props

Betting on New York vs. Seattle WNBA prop bets? We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Climate Pledge Arena.

Jonquel Jones is expected to lead the Liberty with 16 points, 10 rebounds and 3 assists, while Natisha Hiedeman is projected to have 17 points, 3 rebounds and 5 assists for the Storm.

Looking at the opening tip, the numbers point to Dominique Malonga striking first with a 15.4% probability.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Liberty prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Liberty are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Jonquel Jones	16	10	3	2	40
Sabrina Ionescu	15	5	5	2	35
Pauline Astier	10	4	4	1	24
Leonie Fiebich	10	4	2	2	21
Han Xu	9	3	1	1	18

Storm prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Storm:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
N. Hiedeman	17	3	5	2	33
D. Malonga	16	9	2	0	35
F. Johnson	13	5	3	1	28
Awa Fam	11	5	2	1	25
Zia Cooke	8	2	1	1	14

Liberty vs. Storm game-day updates and essential details

Thursday's action between the Storm and Liberty at Climate Pledge Arena is scheduled to commence at 10:00 PM ET.

• Who: New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm
• Date: Thursday, June 25, 2026
• Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
• Venue: Climate Pledge Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Liberty, with a 72.8% win probability, will likely beat the Storm in Thursday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.