Mercury vs. Aces prediction: Las Vegas favored to win Saturday's WNBA game [7/11/2026]

The Las Vegas Aces will face the Phoenix Mercury in WNBA action at Michelob ULTRA Arena on Saturday, beginning at 6:00 PM ET.

Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven WNBA model predicts the Aces as the most likely winner of the Mercury vs. Aces game.

The Aces, with star players such as A'ja Wilson, Chelsea Gray and Jewell Loyd, will face off against the Mercury, who feature Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner.

This article offers further insights into Saturday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.

Mercury vs. Aces prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's WNBA game between the Mercury and Aces, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives the Aces a 73.0% chance of beating the Mercury.

According to our model, the Mercury (+8.5) have a 59.0% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 168.5 points has a 58.0% chance of staying under,.

Mercury vs. Aces odds

We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Mercury	Aces
Spread	+8.5 (-102)	-8.5 (-110)
Moneyline	+320	-380
Total	o168.5 (-110)	u168.5 (-105)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Mercury vs. Aces picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Mercury +8.5	-102
Moneyline	Mercury	+320
Total	Under 168.5	-105

According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Mercury +8.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Mercury vs. Aces player props

Betting on Phoenix vs. Las Vegas WNBA player props? We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Michelob ULTRA Arena.

Kahleah Copper is expected to lead the Mercury with 19 points, 3 rebounds and 1 assists, while A'ja Wilson is projected to have 26 points, 10 rebounds and 3 assists for the Aces.

Looking at the opening tip, the numbers point to A'ja Wilson striking first with a 18.8% probability.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Mercury prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Mercury are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Kahleah Copper	19	3	1	2	28
Alyssa Thomas	15	9	9	0	45
DeWanna Bonner	10	6	1	1	23
Valeriane Ayayi	9	4	2	1	20
Alexa Held	9	2	2	1	17

Aces prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Aces:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
A'ja Wilson	26	10	3	1	53
Chelsea Gray	12	4	7	2	35
Jewell Loyd	12	3	2	3	25
NaLyssa Smith	8	5	1	0	19
Kierstan Bell	5	2	1	1	13

Mercury vs. Aces game-day updates and essential details

Saturday's action between the Aces and Mercury at Michelob ULTRA Arena is scheduled to start at 6:00 PM ET.

• Who: Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces
• Date: Saturday, July 11, 2026
• Time: 6:00 PM ET/3:00PM PT
• Venue: Michelob ULTRA Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Aces, with a 73.0% win probability, will likely beat the Mercury in Saturday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.