Mercury vs. Sparks prediction: Los Angeles favored to win Tuesday's WNBA matchup [8/11/2026]

Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Tuesday's WNBA matchup between the Mercury and Sparks, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives the Sparks a 59.5% chance of defeating the Mercury.

According to our model, the Sparks (-2.5) have a 50.2% chance of covering the spread, while the 179.5-point over/under has a 50.8% chance of going over,.

Mercury vs. Sparks odds

We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Mercury +2.5 (-113) / Sparks -2.5 (+108)
• Moneyline: Mercury +113, Sparks -115

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Mercury vs. Sparks picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Sparks -2.5 @ +108 via DraftKings
• Moneyline: Sparks @ -115 via Novig
• Total: Over 179.5 @ +100 via Polymarket

According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Sparks to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Mercury vs. Sparks player props

WNBA prop bets are an exciting way to wager on the Phoenix vs. Los Angeles game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Galen Center.

Kahleah Copper is expected to lead the Mercury with 20 points, 4 rebounds and 2 assists, while Nneka Ogwumike is projected to have 15 points, 8 rebounds and 3 assists for the Sparks.

When evaluating the first basket market, Kahleah Copper is our top projected player to score first, backed by a 13.8% probability.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Mercury prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Mercury are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Kahleah Copper	20	4	2	2	32
Alyssa Thomas	14	8	8	0	42
DeWanna Bonner	11	7	2	1	28
Valeriane Ayayi	7	3	1	1	16
Natasha Mack	7	6	1	0	20

Sparks prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Sparks:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Nneka Ogwumike	15	8	3	1	33
Dearica Hamby	14	7	2	0	31
Rae Burrell	14	3	3	2	26
Erica Wheeler	13	2	7	2	30
Ariel Atkins	10	4	5	2	28

Mercury vs. Sparks game-day updates and essential details

Tuesday's action between the Sparks and Mercury at Galen Center is scheduled to start at 10:00 PM ET.

• Who: Phoenix Mercury vs. Los Angeles Sparks
• Date: Tuesday, August 11, 2026
• Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
• Venue: Galen Center

Conclusion

We predict the Sparks, with a 59.5% win probability, will likely beat the Mercury in Tuesday's WNBA matchup.

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