Fire vs. Mercury prediction: Why Phoenix is favored to win Sunday's WNBA matchup [8/16/2026]
Get Portland Fire vs Phoenix Mercury predictions for WNBA Sunday.
WNBA action continues on Sunday at 7:00 PM ET as the Portland Fire square off with the Phoenix Mercury at Mortgage Matchup Center.
Dimers' proven WNBA model projects the Mercury as the most likely winner in this Fire vs. Mercury prediction.
The Mercury, who have the likes of Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner, are set to take on the Fire, featuring Carla Leite, Megan Gustafson and Bridget Carleton.
This article offers further insights into Sunday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Fire vs. Mercury prediction: Who will win and cover?
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Mercury a 58.8% chance of beating the Fire.
According to our model, the Fire (+4.5) have a 56.6% chance of covering the spread, while the 177.5-point over/under has a 53.7% chance of staying under,.
Fire vs. Mercury odds
We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Spread: Fire +4.5 (+106) / Mercury -4.5 (-113)
- Moneyline: Fire +186, Mercury -182
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Fire vs. Mercury picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Spread: Fire +4.5 @ +106 via DraftKings
- Moneyline: Fire @ +186 via Polymarket
- Total: Under 177.5 @ +104 via Novig
According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Fire +4.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Fire vs. Mercury player props
WNBA prop bets are a popular way to wager on the Portland vs. Phoenix matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Mortgage Matchup Center.
Carla Leite is expected to lead the Fire with 15 points, 3 rebounds and 9 assists, while Kahleah Copper is projected to have 19 points, 4 rebounds and 3 assists for the Mercury.
Shifting focus to the first basket market, our projections highlight Kahleah Copper as the most likely player to open the scoring.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.
Fire prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Fire are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Leite | 15 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 37 |
| Megan Gustafson | 13 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 26 |
| B. Carleton | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 31 |
| Emily Engstler | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 26 |
| H. Winterburn | 8 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 18 |
Mercury prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Mercury:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kahleah Copper | 19 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 32 |
| Alyssa Thomas | 14 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 42 |
| DeWanna Bonner | 11 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 27 |
| Noemie Brochant | 9 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 19 |
| Valeriane Ayayi | 7 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 15 |
Fire vs. Mercury game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's matchup between the Mercury and Fire at Mortgage Matchup Center is scheduled to begin at 7:00 PM ET.
- Who: Portland Fire vs. Phoenix Mercury
- Date: Sunday, August 16, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center
Conclusion
We predict the Mercury, with a 58.8% win probability, will likely beat the Fire in Sunday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Mac Douglass specializes in NFL previews for the NFC South and NFC East, MLB best bets, Formula 1 race previews, and professional tennis insights. Combining predictive simulations and data-driven sports analysis, Mac provides in-depth content to elevate the betting experience for sports fans.
