Storm vs. Mercury prediction: Why Phoenix is favored to win Saturday's WNBA matchup [6/20/2026]

The Phoenix Mercury will face the Seattle Storm in WNBA action at Mortgage Matchup Center on Saturday, starting at 3:00 PM ET.

Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced WNBA model projects the Mercury as the most likely winner of the Storm vs. Mercury game.

The Mercury, with star players such as Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner, are set to take on the Storm, who feature Dominique Malonga, Natisha Hiedeman and Awa Fam.

This article offers further insights into Saturday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.

Storm vs. Mercury prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's WNBA matchup between the Storm and Mercury, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives the Mercury a 74.8% chance of defeating the Storm.

According to our model, the Mercury (-6.5) have a 51.0% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 163.5 points has a 52.5% chance of going over,.

Storm vs. Mercury odds

We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Storm	Mercury
Spread	+6.5 (-108)	-6.5 (-110)
Moneyline	+215	-250
Total	o163.5 (-105)	u163.5 (-115)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Storm vs. Mercury picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Mercury -6.5	-110
Moneyline	Mercury	-250
Total	Over 163.5	-105

According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Mercury to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Storm vs. Mercury player props

Betting on Storm vs. Mercury WNBA player props? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Mortgage Matchup Center.

Dominique Malonga is expected to lead the Storm with 18 points, 10 rebounds and 2 assists, while Kahleah Copper is projected to have 18 points, 4 rebounds and 2 assists for the Mercury.

For early game action, the data identifies Dominique Malonga as the most probable player to secure the first basket.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Storm prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Storm are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
D. Malonga	18	10	2	0	40
N. Hiedeman	16	3	5	2	32
Awa Fam	13	6	2	1	28
F. Johnson	12	4	2	1	26
Zia Cooke	9	2	1	1	16

Mercury prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Mercury:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Kahleah Copper	18	4	2	2	29
Alyssa Thomas	16	9	7	0	43
DeWanna Bonner	10	5	1	1	21
Alexa Held	10	3	2	1	22
Natasha Mack	9	9	1	0	27

Storm vs. Mercury game-day updates and essential details

Saturday's matchup between the Mercury and Storm at Mortgage Matchup Center is scheduled to begin at 3:00 PM ET.

• Who: Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury
• Date: Saturday, June 20, 2026
• Time: 3:00 PM ET/12:00PM PT
• Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center

Conclusion

We predict the Mercury, with a 74.8% win probability, will likely beat the Storm in Saturday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.