Storm vs. Mercury prediction: Why Phoenix is favored to win Thursday's WNBA matchup [7/2/2026]

The Phoenix Mercury and Seattle Storm will lock horns in the WNBA at Mortgage Matchup Center on Thursday, with tipoff at 10:00 PM ET.

Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven WNBA model predicts the Mercury as the most likely winner of the Storm vs. Mercury game.

The Mercury, who have stars like Alyssa Thomas, Kahleah Copper and Valeriane Ayayi, are set to take on the Storm, whose lineup includes Dominique Malonga, Natisha Hiedeman and Flau'jae Johnson.

This article offers a closer look at Thursday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.

Storm vs. Mercury prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's WNBA game between the Storm and Mercury, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Mercury a 68.6% chance of beating the Storm.

According to our model, the Mercury (-4.5) have a 51.4% chance of covering the spread, while the 169.5-point over/under has a 53.8% chance of staying under,.

Storm vs. Mercury odds

We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Storm	Mercury
Spread	+4.5 (-105)	-4.5 (-105)
Moneyline	+165	-166
Total	o169.5 (-108)	u169.5 (-112)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Storm vs. Mercury picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Mercury -4.5	-105
Moneyline	Mercury	-166
Total	Under 169.5	-112

According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Mercury to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Storm vs. Mercury player props

WNBA prop bets are an enjoyable way to wager on the Storm vs. Mercury game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Mortgage Matchup Center.

Dominique Malonga is expected to lead the Storm with 17 points, 10 rebounds and 2 assists, while Alyssa Thomas is projected to have 17 points, 9 rebounds and 8 assists for the Mercury.

Shifting focus to the first basket market, our projections highlight Dominique Malonga as the most likely player to open the scoring.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Storm prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Storm are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
D. Malonga	17	10	2	1	38
N. Hiedeman	15	2	4	2	29
F. Johnson	12	4	2	1	26
Awa Fam	11	5	2	2	25
Jade Melbourne	5	1	2	0	12

Mercury prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Mercury:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Alyssa Thomas	17	9	8	0	47
Kahleah Copper	17	4	2	1	28
Valeriane Ayayi	14	6	3	1	31
DeWanna Bonner	10	5	1	1	21
Alexa Held	9	2	2	1	20

Storm vs. Mercury game-day updates and essential details

Thursday's game between the Mercury and Storm at Mortgage Matchup Center is scheduled to begin at 10:00 PM ET.

• Who: Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury
• Date: Thursday, July 2, 2026
• Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
• Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center

Conclusion

We predict the Mercury, with a 68.6% win probability, will likely beat the Storm in Thursday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.