Mystics vs. Sun prediction: Why Washington is favored to win Friday's WNBA matchup [6/26/2026]

The Connecticut Sun will square off with the Washington Mystics in WNBA action at Mohegan Sun Arena on Friday, beginning at 7:30 PM ET.

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven WNBA model predicts the Mystics as the most likely winner of the Mystics vs. Sun game.

The Sun, powered by Brittney Griner, Leila Lacan and Aaliyah Edwards, will face off against the Mystics, whose lineup includes Sonia Citron, Shakira Austin and Kiki Iriafen.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Friday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.

Mystics vs. Sun prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Friday's WNBA matchup between the Mystics and Sun, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives the Mystics a 59.6% chance of defeating the Sun.

According to our model, the Sun (+3.5) have a 53.1% chance of covering the spread, while the 164.5-point over/under has a 53.4% chance of going over,.

Mystics vs. Sun odds

We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Mystics	Sun
Spread	-3.5 (-110)	+3.5 (-105)
Moneyline	-168	+150
Total	o164.5 (-110)	u164.5 (-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Mystics vs. Sun picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Sun +3.5	-105
Moneyline	Sun	+150
Total	Over 164.5	-110

According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Sun +3.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Mystics vs. Sun player props

Looking for Mystics vs. Sun WNBA player props? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Mohegan Sun Arena.

Sonia Citron is expected to lead the Mystics with 17 points, 4 rebounds and 3 assists, while Brittney Griner is projected to have 12 points, 5 rebounds and 1 assists for the Sun.

For early game action, the data identifies Brittney Griner as the most probable player to secure the first basket.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Mystics prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Mystics are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Sonia Citron	17	4	3	2	32
Shakira Austin	16	7	3	0	37
Kiki Iriafen	15	9	2	0	31
M. Onyenwere	10	3	2	1	19
Lauren Betts	10	4	2	0	22

Sun prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Sun:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Brittney Griner	12	5	1	0	24
Leila Lacan	11	2	4	1	27
Aaliyah Edwards	9	5	1	0	21
Diamond Miller	9	2	1	1	18
Kennedy Burke	9	3	2	1	20

Mystics vs. Sun game-day updates and essential details

Friday's action between the Sun and Mystics at Mohegan Sun Arena is scheduled to start at 7:30 PM ET.

• Who: Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun
• Date: Friday, June 26, 2026
• Time: 7:30 PM ET/4:30PM PT
• Venue: Mohegan Sun Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Mystics, with a 59.6% win probability, will likely beat the Sun in Friday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.