Mystics vs. Sun prediction: Why Connecticut is favored to win Wednesday's WNBA matchup [6/17/2026]

The Connecticut Sun will take on the Washington Mystics in WNBA action at Mohegan Sun Arena on Wednesday, commencing at 7:00 PM ET.

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven WNBA model predicts the Sun as the most likely winner of the Mystics vs. Sun game.

The Sun, who have stars like Leila Lacan, Brittney Griner and Saniya Rivers, will face off against the Mystics, who feature Sonia Citron, Shakira Austin and Kiki Iriafen.

This article offers a closer look at Wednesday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.

Mystics vs. Sun prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Wednesday's WNBA matchup between the Mystics and Sun, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives the Sun a 63.2% chance of defeating the Mystics.

According to our model, the Sun (-2.5) have a 53.3% chance of covering the spread, while the 159.5-point over/under has a 53.3% chance of going over,.

Mystics vs. Sun odds

We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Mystics	Sun
Spread	+2.5 (-115)	-2.5 (-105)
Moneyline	+115	-125
Total	o159.5 (-110)	u159.5 (-105)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Mystics vs. Sun picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Sun -2.5	-105
Moneyline	Sun	-125
Total	Over 159.5	-110

According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Sun to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Mystics vs. Sun player props

Betting on Washington vs. Connecticut WNBA player props? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Mohegan Sun Arena.

Sonia Citron is expected to lead the Mystics with 16 points, 4 rebounds and 3 assists, while Leila Lacan is projected to have 11 points, 2 rebounds and 4 assists for the Sun.

Looking at the opening tip, the numbers point to Kiki Iriafen striking first with a 14.2% probability.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Mystics prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Mystics are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Sonia Citron	16	4	3	2	30
Shakira Austin	15	6	3	0	34
Kiki Iriafen	12	7	1	0	25
Cotie McMahon	10	3	2	1	19
Lauren Betts	10	4	2	0	22

Sun prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Sun:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Leila Lacan	11	2	4	1	27
Brittney Griner	10	4	1	0	20
Saniya Rivers	9	3	3	1	25
Aneesah Morrow	9	7	1	1	23
O. Nelson-Ododa	8	4	1	0	19

Mystics vs. Sun game-day updates and essential details

Wednesday's action between the Sun and Mystics at Mohegan Sun Arena is scheduled to start at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun
• Date: Wednesday, June 17, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: Mohegan Sun Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Sun, with a 63.2% win probability, will likely beat the Mystics in Wednesday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.