Mystics vs. Mercury prediction: Why Washington is favored to win Tuesday's WNBA matchup [8/25/2026]

The Phoenix Mercury will face the Washington Mystics in WNBA action at Mortgage Matchup Center on Tuesday, commencing at 10:00 PM ET.

Dimers' advanced WNBA model projects the Mystics as the most likely winner in this Mystics vs. Mercury prediction.

The Mercury, with stars such as Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas and Kelsey Plum, are set to take on the Mystics, featuring Shakira Austin, Kiki Iriafen and Sonia Citron.

This article offers further insights into Tuesday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.

Mystics vs. Mercury prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Tuesday's WNBA game between the Mystics and Mercury, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Mystics a 66.7% chance of beating the Mercury.

According to our model, the Mystics (-1.5) have a 59.8% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 167.5 points has a 57.8% chance of going over.

Mystics vs. Mercury odds

We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Mystics -1.5 (-108) / Mercury +1.5 (+102)
• Moneyline: Mystics -117, Mercury +118

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Mystics vs. Mercury picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Mystics -1.5 @ -108 via DraftKings
• Moneyline: Mystics @ -117 via Polymarket
• Total: Over 167.5 @ -108 via Novig

According to our best WNBA bets, the top play to make on this game is Mystics to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Mystics vs. Mercury player props

Betting on Mystics vs. Mercury WNBA prop bets? We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Mortgage Matchup Center.

Shakira Austin is expected to lead the Mystics with 17 points, 9 rebounds and 2 assists, while Kahleah Copper is projected to have 21 points, 4 rebounds and 2 assists for the Mercury.

Shifting focus to the first basket market, our projections highlight Shakira Austin as the most likely player to open the scoring.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Mystics prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Mystics are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Shakira Austin	17	9	2	1	38
Kiki Iriafen	15	9	2	0	32
Sonia Citron	15	3	7	1	34
M. Onyenwere	9	3	3	2	19
Lauren Betts	7	4	2	0	18

Mercury prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Mercury:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Kahleah Copper	21	4	2	2	32
Alyssa Thomas	14	7	8	0	41
Kelsey Plum	13	2	4	1	24
Noemie Brochant	11	3	2	2	21
Sami Whitcomb	7	3	3	2	19

Mystics vs. Mercury game-day updates and essential details

Tuesday's matchup between the Mercury and Mystics at Mortgage Matchup Center is scheduled to begin at 10:00 PM ET.

• Who: Washington Mystics vs. Phoenix Mercury
• Date: Tuesday, August 25, 2026
• Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
• Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center

Conclusion

We predict the Mystics, with a 66.7% win probability, will likely beat the Mercury in Tuesday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.