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Read Article Best WNBA bets today: Thursday's picks include Fever vs. Mercury play [7/9/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get WNBA picks today and best bets for Thursday, July 9, 2026.
Today’s best WNBA bets for July 9, 2026 are here, with Fever vs. Mercury among the top plays identified by our model across Thursday’s WNBA slate.
Dimers’ predictive analytics engine runs 24/7, scanning the latest WNBA odds to uncover legitimate betting edges. The result? Data-backed picks that help Dimers Pro members make smarter decisions.
List of WNBA best bets tonight [7/9, updated 9:13PM ET]
Below, you’ll find today’s best WNBA bets, ranked by edge for Thursday, July 9, 2026.
Mercury ML (+106)
- Edge: 9.4%
- Probability: 58%
- Matchup: Fever vs. Mercury (10:00PM ET)
Our model has identified value on Mercury to defeat Fever at +106 odds. A 58% probability produces an edge of 9.4%, making this the strongest play for today's WNBA slate.
Fever vs. Mercury Under 171.5 points (+102)
- Edge: 9.1%
- Probability: 58.6%
- Matchup: Fever vs. Mercury (10:00PM ET)
Fever vs. Mercury under 171.5 points carries a 9.1% edge and a probability of 58.6% at +102 odds, according to our model.
Aces vs. Fire Under 175.5 points (-110)
- Edge: 8.7%
- Probability: 61.1%
- Matchup: Aces vs. Fire (10:00PM ET)
Aces vs. Fire Under 175.5 points at -110 odds shows a 8.7% edge, supported by a 61.1% probability in simulations.
Mercury +1 (-105)
- Edge: 5.5%
- Probability: 56.8%
- Matchup: Fever vs. Mercury (10:00PM ET)
A 5.5% edge and 56.8% probability makes Mercury +1 vs. Fever a value play in the Fever vs. Mercury matchup, per our model.
Fire +9.5 (-105)
- Edge: 4.8%
- Probability: 56%
- Matchup: Aces vs. Fire (10:00PM ET)
Fire +9.5 at -105 odds presents a 4.8% edge, with simulations resulting in a probability of 56%.
WNBA best bets summary: Thursday, 7/9/2026
As of 9:13PM ET, here are our top WNBA bets by edge recommended by our model:
| Matchup | Bet | Odds | Edge | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fever vs. Mercury | Mercury ML | +106 @ Novig | 9.4% | 58% |
| Fever vs. Mercury | Under 171.5 points | +102 @ Novig | 9.1% | 58.6% |
| Aces vs. Fire | Under 175.5 Points | -110 @ BetMGM | 8.7% | 61.1% |
| Fever vs. Mercury | Mercury +1 vs. Fever | -105 @ Caesars | 5.5% | 56.8% |
| Aces vs. Fire | Fire +9.5 | -105 @ BetMGM | 4.8% | 56% |
List of upcoming WNBA games to bet on [7/9/2026]
- Fever vs. Mercury (10:00PM ET, Thursday)
- Aces vs. Fire (10:00PM ET, Thursday)
- Wings vs. Tempo (7:30PM ET, Friday)
- Valkyries vs. Sun (7:30PM ET, Friday)
Conclusion
Our WNBA best bets are locked and loaded for July 9, 2026, featuring plays such as Mercury ML vs. Fever and under 171.5 points also in the Fever vs. Mercury matchup. Powered by advanced simulations, these picks are here to boost your betting game.
Our predictions are drawn from current data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our Responsible Gambling hub.
All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publication.
Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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