WNBA first basket picks and predictions for Thursday, August 20, 2026

Our WNBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Thursday, August 20, 2026—are live with the Fever's Kelsey Mitchell projected as the most likely player to score first.

These projections draw on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily WNBA player projections.

Mitchell, Brittney Griner and Allisha Gray lead Thursday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.

WNBA first basket predictions tonight (August 20, 2026)

• Kelsey Mitchell (Fever): 16.2% probability
• Brittney Griner (Sun): 14.7% probability
• Allisha Gray (Dream): 14.2% probability
• A'ja Wilson (Aces): 14.2% probability
• Paige Bueckers (Wings): 13.8% probability
• Nneka Ogwumike (Sparks): 12.7% probability
• Dearica Hamby (Sparks): 12.7% probability
• Jackie Young (Aces): 12.5% probability
• Olivia Nelson-Ododa (Sun): 11.6% probability
• Caitlin Clark (Fever): 11.5% probability
• Aliyah Boston (Fever): 11.2% probability
• Rae Burrell (Sparks): 11.1% probability
• Angel Reese (Dream): 11.0% probability
• Arike Ogunbowale (Wings): 10.9% probability
• Jessica Shepard (Wings): 10.3% probability
• NaLyssa Smith (Aces): 10.2% probability
• Rhyne Howard (Dream): 10.2% probability
• Alanna Smith (Wings): 10.1% probability
• Diamond Miller (Sun): 9.9% probability
• Leila Lacan (Sun): 9.1% probability
• Erica Wheeler (Sparks): 8.0% probability
• Chelsea Gray (Aces): 7.6% probability
• Naz Hillmon (Dream): 7.3% probability
• Makayla Timpson (Fever): 7.3% probability
• Jordin Canada (Dream): 7.2% probability
• Stephanie Talbot (Aces): 5.5% probability
• Ariel Atkins (Sparks): 5.5% probability
• Alysha Clark (Wings): 5.0% probability
• Charlisse Leger-Walker (Sun): 4.8% probability
• Lexie Hull (Fever): 3.8% probability

WNBA first basket picks today (August 20, 2026)

• Kelsey Mitchell (Fever): 3.2% edge at +675
• Rae Burrell (Sparks): 2.0% edge at +1000
• Erica Wheeler (Sparks): 1.8% edge at +1500
• Alanna Smith (Wings): 1.6% edge at +1080
• Leila Lacan (Sun): 1.5% edge at +1220
• Chelsea Gray (Aces): 1.4% edge at +1500
• Stephanie Talbot (Aces): 1.1% edge at +2200
• Arike Ogunbowale (Wings): 0.9% edge at +900

Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.

For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of WNBA prop bets for 8/20.

Conclusion: Betting on today's WNBA first basket

For Thursday, August 20, 2026, Kelsey Mitchell, Brittney Griner and Allisha Gray lead our first basket projections, with Mitchell shaping as the strongest value play at +675. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ WNBA first basket model.

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