Aug 22, 2026
Fever vs. Liberty prediction: Caitlin Clark projected to score 22 points in Saturday's WNBA game [8/22/2026]
Read Article WNBA first basket picks and predictions for Saturday, August 22, 2026
Updated: | First published:
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Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of WNBA slate on 8/22.
Our WNBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Saturday, August 22, 2026—are live with the Fever's Kelsey Mitchell projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections draw on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily WNBA player projections.
Mitchell, Olivia Nelson-Ododa and Allisha Gray lead Saturday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also feature tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
WNBA first basket predictions tonight (August 22, 2026)
- Kelsey Mitchell (Fever): 15.8% probability
- Olivia Nelson-Ododa (Sun): 13.7% probability
- Allisha Gray (Dream): 13.2% probability
- Kelsey Plum (Mercury): 13.2% probability
- Dearica Hamby (Sparks): 12.6% probability
- Nneka Ogwumike (Sparks): 12.5% probability
- Breanna Stewart (Liberty): 12.4% probability
- Kahleah Copper (Mercury): 12.3% probability
- Angel Reese (Dream): 11.6% probability
- Aliyah Boston (Fever): 11.6% probability
- Sabrina Ionescu (Liberty): 11.2% probability
- Caitlin Clark (Fever): 11.1% probability
- Kennedy Burke (Sun): 11.1% probability
- Rae Burrell (Sparks): 11.1% probability
- Rhyne Howard (Dream): 10.8% probability
- Diamond Miller (Sun): 10.7% probability
- Jonquel Jones (Liberty): 10.5% probability
- Alyssa Thomas (Mercury): 9.2% probability
- Pauline Astier (Liberty): 9.1% probability
- Leila Lacan (Sun): 8.6% probability
- DeWanna Bonner (Mercury): 8.4% probability
- Erica Wheeler (Sparks): 8.3% probability
- Naz Hillmon (Dream): 8.1% probability
- Makayla Timpson (Fever): 7.5% probability
- Noemie Brochant (Mercury): 6.9% probability
- Leonie Fiebich (Liberty): 6.8% probability
- Jordin Canada (Dream): 6.3% probability
- Charlisse Leger-Walker (Sun): 5.9% probability
- Ariel Atkins (Sparks): 5.5% probability
- Lexie Hull (Fever): 4.0% probability
WNBA first basket picks today (August 22, 2026)
- Kelsey Mitchell (Fever): 4.0% edge at +750
- Rae Burrell (Sparks): 2.0% edge at +1000
- Erica Wheeler (Sparks): 1.6% edge at +1400
- Pauline Astier (Liberty): 0.8% edge at +1100
- Noemie Brochant (Mercury): 0.6% edge at +1500
- Naz Hillmon (Dream): 0.4% edge at +1200
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of WNBA prop bets for 8/22.
Conclusion: Betting on today's WNBA first basket
For Saturday, August 22, 2026, Kelsey Mitchell, Olivia Nelson-Ododa and Allisha Gray lead our first basket projections, with Mitchell shaping as the strongest value play at +750. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ WNBA first basket model.
For tips and resources on responsible wagering, visit our Responsible Gambling section.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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