Jul 22, 2026
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Read Article WNBA first basket picks and predictions for Friday, July 17, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Experience Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of WNBA slate on 7/17.
Our WNBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Friday, July 17, 2026—are live with the Mercury's Kahleah Copper projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections draw on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily WNBA player projections.
Copper, Brittney Griner and Marina Mabrey lead Friday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
WNBA first basket predictions tonight (July 17, 2026)
| Player (Team) | FB Probability |
|---|---|
| Kahleah Copper (Mercury) | 16.0% |
| Brittney Griner (Sun) | 15.4% |
| Marina Mabrey (Tempo) | 15.3% |
| Kamilla Cardoso (Sky) | 14.5% |
| Nneka Ogwumike (Sparks) | 13.6% |
| Kelsey Mitchell (Fever) | 13.3% |
| Sydney Taylor (Sky) | 13.0% |
| Isabelle Harrison (Tempo) | 12.8% |
| Dominique Malonga (Storm) | 12.6% |
| Allisha Gray (Dream) | 12.4% |
| Caitlin Clark (Fever) | 12.2% |
| Natisha Hiedeman (Storm) | 12.0% |
| Angel Reese (Dream) | 11.8% |
| Aliyah Boston (Fever) | 11.8% |
| Alyssa Thomas (Mercury) | 11.5% |
| Dearica Hamby (Sparks) | 11.1% |
| Leila Lacan (Sun) | 10.9% |
| Rhyne Howard (Dream) | 10.7% |
| Flau'jae Johnson (Storm) | 10.6% |
| Rae Burrell (Sparks) | 10.4% |
| Laura Juskaite (Tempo) | 9.7% |
| Azura Stevens (Sky) | 9.3% |
| Awa Fam (Storm) | 8.2% |
| DeWanna Bonner (Mercury) | 8.1% |
| Valeriane Ayayi (Mercury) | 8.0% |
| Jordin Canada (Dream) | 8.0% |
| Kennedy Burke (Sun) | 8.0% |
| Diamond Miller (Sun) | 7.9% |
| Charlisse Leger-Walker (Sun) | 7.8% |
| Erica Wheeler (Sparks) | 7.5% |
| Gabriela Jaquez (Sky) | 7.4% |
| Ariel Atkins (Sparks) | 7.4% |
| Naz Hillmon (Dream) | 7.1% |
| Lexie Hull (Fever) | 6.7% |
| Maria Conde (Tempo) | 6.6% |
| Jade Melbourne (Storm) | 6.6% |
| Noemie Brochant (Mercury) | 6.4% |
| Sophie Cunningham (Fever) | 6.0% |
| Natasha Cloud (Sky) | 5.8% |
| Julie Allemand (Tempo) | 5.6% |
WNBA first basket picks today (July 17, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kahleah Copper | Mercury | 2.7% | +650 | 16.0% |
| Sydney Taylor | Sky | 2.1% | +820 | 13.0% |
| Caitlin Clark | Fever | 1.7% | +850 | 12.2% |
| Natisha Hiedeman | Storm | 1.5% | +850 | 12.0% |
| DeWanna Bonner | Mercury | 1.0% | +1300 | 8.1% |
| Rae Burrell | Sparks | 0.9% | +950 | 10.4% |
| Lexie Hull | Fever | 0.8% | +1600 | 6.7% |
| Laura Juskaite | Tempo | 0.6% | +1000 | 9.7% |
| Flau'jae Johnson | Storm | 0.6% | +900 | 10.6% |
| Ariel Atkins | Sparks | 0.4% | +1340 | 7.4% |
| Erica Wheeler | Sparks | 0.4% | +1300 | 7.5% |
| Alyssa Thomas | Mercury | 0.4% | +800 | 11.5% |
| Charlisse Leger-Walker | Sun | 0.1% | +1200 | 7.8% |
| Jade Melbourne | Storm | 0.0% | +1420 | 6.6% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 7/17.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Friday, July 17, 2026, Kahleah Copper, Brittney Griner and Marina Mabrey lead our first basket projections, with Copper shaping as the strongest value play at +650. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ WNBA first basket model.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Damien Souness is Chief Experience Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, helping lead sports media brands such as Dimers. He specializes in creating trustworthy and data-driven content for sports fans, with experience working for globally recognized sports and media organizations.
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