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Read Article WNBA first basket picks and predictions for Saturday, July 11, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of WNBA slate on 7/11.
Our WNBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Saturday, July 11, 2026—are live with the Mercury's Kahleah Copper projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections draw on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily WNBA player projections.
Copper, A'ja Wilson and Megan Gustafson lead Saturday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also identify tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
WNBA first basket predictions tonight (July 11, 2026)
| Player (Team) | FB Probability |
|---|---|
| Kahleah Copper (Mercury) | 16.0% |
| A'ja Wilson (Aces) | 15.5% |
| Megan Gustafson (Fire) | 12.6% |
| Jackie Young (Aces) | 11.9% |
| Rhyne Howard (Dream) | 11.9% |
| Angel Reese (Dream) | 11.9% |
| Allisha Gray (Dream) | 11.8% |
| Carla Leite (Fire) | 11.4% |
| Alyssa Thomas (Mercury) | 11.1% |
| NaLyssa Smith (Aces) | 10.7% |
| Frieda Buhner (Fire) | 9.2% |
| Emily Engstler (Fire) | 8.6% |
| Alexa Held (Mercury) | 8.5% |
| Bridget Carleton (Fire) | 8.2% |
| DeWanna Bonner (Mercury) | 8.0% |
| Jordin Canada (Dream) | 8.0% |
| Naz Hillmon (Dream) | 6.5% |
| Noemie Brochant (Mercury) | 6.4% |
| Jewell Loyd (Aces) | 6.0% |
| Chelsea Gray (Aces) | 5.9% |
WNBA first basket picks today (July 11, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Megan Gustafson | Fire | 1.5% | +800 | 12.6% |
| Jackie Young | Aces | 1.4% | +850 | 11.9% |
| Alexa Held | Mercury | 0.8% | +1200 | 8.5% |
| Bridget Carleton | Fire | 0.5% | +1200 | 8.2% |
| Emily Engstler | Fire | 0.3% | +1100 | 8.6% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 7/11.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Saturday, July 11, 2026, Kahleah Copper, A'ja Wilson and Megan Gustafson lead our first basket projections, with Gustafson shaping as the strongest value play at +800. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ WNBA first basket model.
For tips and resources on responsible wagering, visit our Responsible Gambling section.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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