Jul 22, 2026
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Read Article WNBA first basket picks and predictions for Sunday, July 5, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of WNBA slate on 7/5.
Our WNBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Sunday, July 5, 2026—are live with the Tempo's Marina Mabrey projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections draw on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily WNBA player projections.
Mabrey, Kelsey Mitchell and Paige Bueckers lead Sunday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
WNBA first basket predictions tonight (July 5, 2026)
| Player (Team) | FB Probability |
|---|---|
| Marina Mabrey (Tempo) | 15.5% |
| Kelsey Mitchell (Fever) | 15.5% |
| Paige Bueckers (Wings) | 15.2% |
| Aliyah Boston (Fever) | 14.7% |
| Chennedy Carter (Aces) | 13.6% |
| Isabelle Harrison (Tempo) | 11.5% |
| Jackie Young (Aces) | 11.5% |
| NaLyssa Smith (Aces) | 11.1% |
| Jessica Shepard (Wings) | 10.9% |
| Nyara Sabally (Tempo) | 10.6% |
| Azzi Fudd (Wings) | 9.9% |
| Sophie Cunningham (Fever) | 8.6% |
| Chelsea Gray (Aces) | 7.9% |
| Arike Ogunbowale (Wings) | 7.3% |
| Maria Conde (Tempo) | 6.9% |
| Alanna Smith (Wings) | 6.7% |
| Lexie Hull (Fever) | 6.4% |
| Jewell Loyd (Aces) | 5.9% |
| Julie Allemand (Tempo) | 5.4% |
| Tyasha Harris (Fever) | 4.8% |
WNBA first basket picks today (July 5, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Azzi Fudd | Wings | 0.8% | +1000 | 9.9% |
| NaLyssa Smith | Aces | 0.6% | +850 | 11.1% |
| Kelsey Mitchell | Fever | 0.1% | +550 | 15.5% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 7/5.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Sunday, July 5, 2026, Marina Mabrey, Kelsey Mitchell and Paige Bueckers lead our first basket projections, while Azzi Fudd shapes as the strongest value play at +1000. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ WNBA first basket model.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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