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Read Article WNBA first basket picks and predictions for Thursday, July 9, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of WNBA slate on 7/9.
Our WNBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Thursday, July 9, 2026—are live with the Mercury's Kahleah Copper projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections draw on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily WNBA player projections.
Copper, A'ja Wilson and Kelsey Mitchell lead Thursday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
WNBA first basket predictions tonight (July 9, 2026)
| Player (Team) | FB Probability |
|---|---|
| Kahleah Copper (Mercury) | 15.2% |
| A'ja Wilson (Aces) | 15.1% |
| Kelsey Mitchell (Fever) | 15.0% |
| Aliyah Boston (Fever) | 14.4% |
| Dominique Malonga (Storm) | 13.7% |
| Angel Reese (Dream) | 12.4% |
| Megan Gustafson (Fire) | 12.3% |
| Rhyne Howard (Dream) | 11.8% |
| Allisha Gray (Dream) | 11.6% |
| Natisha Hiedeman (Storm) | 11.6% |
| Jackie Young (Aces) | 11.3% |
| Carla Leite (Fire) | 11.2% |
| NaLyssa Smith (Aces) | 10.8% |
| Sarah Ashlee Barker (Fire) | 10.1% |
| Alyssa Thomas (Mercury) | 10.0% |
| Flau'jae Johnson (Storm) | 10.0% |
| Alexa Held (Mercury) | 8.9% |
| Awa Fam (Storm) | 8.8% |
| Sophie Cunningham (Fever) | 8.6% |
| Valeriane Ayayi (Mercury) | 8.5% |
| Emily Engstler (Fire) | 8.4% |
| Bridget Carleton (Fire) | 7.9% |
| DeWanna Bonner (Mercury) | 7.3% |
| Lexie Hull (Fever) | 7.1% |
| Naz Hillmon (Dream) | 7.1% |
| Jordin Canada (Dream) | 7.1% |
| Chelsea Gray (Aces) | 6.7% |
| Jewell Loyd (Aces) | 6.1% |
| Jade Melbourne (Storm) | 5.9% |
| Tyasha Harris (Fever) | 4.8% |
WNBA first basket picks today (July 9, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natisha Hiedeman | Storm | 4.4% | +1300 | 11.6% |
| Sarah Ashlee Barker | Fire | 3.0% | +1300 | 10.1% |
| Jackie Young | Aces | 1.8% | +950 | 11.3% |
| Megan Gustafson | Fire | 1.4% | +820 | 12.3% |
| Alexa Held | Mercury | 1.0% | +1160 | 8.9% |
| Lexie Hull | Fever | 0.9% | +1500 | 7.1% |
| Valeriane Ayayi | Mercury | 0.8% | +1200 | 8.5% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 7/9.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Thursday, July 9, 2026, Kahleah Copper, A'ja Wilson and Kelsey Mitchell lead our first basket projections, while Natisha Hiedeman shapes as the strongest value play at +1300. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ WNBA first basket model.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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