Jul 22, 2026
Wings vs. Fire prediction: Paige Bueckers projected to score 19 points in Wednesday's WNBA matchup [7/22/2026]
Read Article WNBA first basket picks and predictions for Thursday, July 16, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of WNBA slate on 7/16.
Our WNBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Thursday, July 16, 2026—are live with the Liberty's Pauline Astier projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections draw on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily WNBA player projections.
Astier, Paige Bueckers and Leonie Fiebich lead Thursday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also identify tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
WNBA first basket predictions tonight (July 16, 2026)
| Player (Team) | FB Probability |
|---|---|
| Pauline Astier (Liberty) | 16.4% |
| Paige Bueckers (Wings) | 16.1% |
| Leonie Fiebich (Liberty) | 15.5% |
| Kiki Iriafen (Mystics) | 14.0% |
| Raquel Carrera (Liberty) | 12.6% |
| Aziaha James (Wings) | 11.6% |
| Shakira Austin (Mystics) | 11.1% |
| Carla Leite (Fire) | 10.6% |
| Sonia Citron (Mystics) | 10.5% |
| Sarah Ashlee Barker (Fire) | 10.3% |
| Frieda Buhner (Fire) | 10.3% |
| Azzi Fudd (Wings) | 10.3% |
| Emily Engstler (Fire) | 9.8% |
| Bridget Carleton (Fire) | 8.9% |
| Michaela Onyenwere (Mystics) | 7.4% |
| Awak Kuier (Wings) | 7.3% |
| Georgia Amoore (Mystics) | 7.0% |
| Rebecca Allen (Liberty) | 5.5% |
| Alysha Clark (Wings) | 4.7% |
| Marine Fauthoux (Liberty) | 0.0% |
WNBA first basket picks today (July 16, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Ashlee Barker | Fire | 2.0% | +1100 | 10.3% |
| Emily Engstler | Fire | 1.5% | +1100 | 9.8% |
| Bridget Carleton | Fire | 1.2% | +1200 | 8.9% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 7/16.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Thursday, July 16, 2026, Pauline Astier, Paige Bueckers and Leonie Fiebich lead our first basket projections, while Sarah Ashlee Barker shapes as the strongest value play at +1100. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ WNBA first basket model.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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