Essendon Bombers vs. Adelaide Crows prediction: Why Crows are favored to win Sunday's AFL Round 21 matchup [8/2/2026]
Get Essendon Bombers vs Adelaide Crows predictions for AFL Sunday.
The Essendon Bombers will face the favored Adelaide Crows in Australian Football League (AFL) action at Marvel Stadium on Sunday, starting at 2:40 AM ET.
Dimers' advanced AFL model projects the Crows as the most likely winner in this Crows vs. Bombers prediction.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Bombers vs. Crows prediction: Who will win Round 21 game?
Our leading predictive model gives the Crows an 87.9% chance of beating the Bombers.
According to our model, the Bombers (+39.5) have a 51.8% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 176.5 points has a 50.7% chance of staying under,.
Adelaide vs. Essendon odds
We have sourced the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Crows | Bombers |
|---|---|---|
| H2H (Moneyline) | -1000 | +550 |
| Line (Spread) | -39.5 (-115) | +39.5 (-115) |
| Total | o176.5 (-115) | u176.5 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Crows vs. Bombers picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Bombers +39.5 | -115 |
| Moneyline | Crows | -1000 |
| Total | Under 176.5 | -115 |
According to our AFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 176.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Bombers vs. Crows game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's Australian rules football game between the Bombers and Crows at Marvel Stadium is scheduled to commence at 2:40 AM ET.
- Who: Adelaide Crows vs. Essendon Bombers
- Date: Sunday, August 2, 2026
- Time: 2:40 AM ET/11:40PM PT
- Venue: Marvel Stadium
The AFL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with fans highlighting the high-octane 360-degree nature of the sport as a top reason to follow it.
Conclusion
We predict the Crows, with an 87.9% win probability, will likely beat the Bombers in Sunday's AFL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Damien Souness is Chief Experience Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, helping lead sports media brands such as Dimers. He specializes in creating trustworthy and data-driven content for sports fans, with experience working for globally recognized sports and media organizations.
